On the Edge: How India and Pakistan’s Next War Could Be Fought in Cyberspace

“Ahimsa Paramo Dharmaḥ” (Non-violence is the highest virtue)— Mahabharata

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads since the partition. Numerous times in the past, both countries have had their own  ‘Cuban Missile Crisis Moments’—dangerously coming close to war. Right now, we are on such a threshold, with fear and concerns looming large, and many ‘what if’ scenarios of war between the two countries emerging—an eventuality with global ramifications.

India over the last decades has walked the path of peace. Often it was pushed, provoked, and scarred. But we have kept our sanity—not a sign of weakness, but responsibility for the greater good. This time around, for the first time in many years, the ruling establishment and the opposition are on the same page. Retaliation seems to be high on the radar, and with the loss of innocent lives, justice needs to be served.

While India’s strategic course of action is still evolving, it is a stark reminder of the complex and often strained dynamics India shares with Pakistan—prompting calls for a more assertive and strategic response. To start with, the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty is one such strategic move.

On the other side, Pakistan continues to grapple with severe economic challenges and political instability, leading to a governance environment that complicates its international posture.

The big questions right now are: Will India show restraint? Is there room for diplomacy? Will there be an all-out war? Will Pakistan use a nuclear arsenal?

But beyond all these questions, this time, the battlefield won’t just be physical. It will be fought in cyberspace, through satellites, and AI-driven warfare.

India: Caught Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

Over the years, we have lived with the fear of a cataclysmic nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan as a worst-case scenario—ever since both countries gained nuclear capabilities. But beyond the physical fear, the war may unfold differently—quietly, invisibly, devastatingly—across digital networks on both sides.

While we continue to secure our physical perimeter, with Indian soldiers guarding the Line of Control, what’s more, important is that beyond rifles and drones, we need to be mindful that an equally critical battle is being waged in server farms, dark web forums, satellite feeds, and social media feeds. It is here that the battle will be fought—with bytes before bullets.

Let’s look at some instances. In 2020, Maharashtra’s power grid was paralyzed by a cyberattack that many experts quietly traced to Chinese and Pakistan-based actors. The same is the case with Indian banks, health systems, and even defence institutions, which have increasingly faced sophisticated digital probes and breaches. Pakistan, too, has been subjected to hacking operations—some allegedly retaliatory, others opportunistic.

Remember, this is not the future. This is now.

Behind the Firewalls: Cyber Warriors on Alert

The biggest concern here is India’s digital infrastructure is expansive. From Aadhaar to UPI to Chandrayaan’s command systems, technology touches every nerve of governance. This puts us in a unique position—as well as a target for hackers. We have one of the best real-time payments systems and the digital public stack is world-leading. We need a multi-layered plan to secure our digital ecosystem more than ever—power grids, telecom, financial clearing systems—any attack on them would result in unprecedented chaos.

Key efforts are ongoing. For instance, the Indian government has strengthened CERT-In, the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC), and DRDO’s cyber-defence arms.

But Pakistan, meanwhile, reportedly hosts hacker groups that operate under proxies. Groups like APT36 (aka Transparent Tribe) are long believed to have ISI backing. They have targeted Indian military personnel through phishing and spyware attacks. The danger is not just breach—it’s manipulation of data and disruption of trust.

Eyes in the Sky: Satellites and AI in Surveillance

Modern military strategy is driven by satellite surveillance and AI-enabled image analysis. India’s ISRO, along with military-grade satellites like CARTOSAT and RISAT, offers the country a powerful set of eyes in the sky. Experts believe that AI-driven real-time analytics can facilitate predictive alerts—of enemy movement, border incursions, or even suspicious civilian traffic in border areas.

Here, India has an edge. Pakistan, with limited satellite assets and leverage, is increasingly bent on China’s BeiDou network and intelligence support. This deepens the China-Pakistan digital-military nexus. While this is concerning for India, it also highlights Pakistan’s limitations—being devoid of homegrown technologies.

Nuclear Systems: Securing the Digital Guardrails

Both India and Pakistan possess advanced digitized command-and-control (C2) systems for their nuclear assets. These are meant to be airtight. But in a nation at the receiving end, and given Pakistan’s political instability, these systems falling into the hands of bad actors pose a greater risk—for India and the rest of the world.

In a deep dive, a 2022 RAND Corporation paper flagged how cyber intrusions into nuclear decision systems—whether via spoofing alerts or compromising authentication chains—could lead to catastrophic false launches or delayed responses.

India follows a strict No First Use policy. It is widely believed that Pakistan does not. This seeming asymmetry between the two countries raises the stakes of any digital infiltration.

In an opinion piece for CiOL, Rahil Patel, Chief Growth Officer, QNu Labs, emphasizes that “Nations worldwide are accelerating towards quantum supremacy, a development that threatens current cryptographic standards. Once operational, quantum computers will render RSA- and ECC-based encryption obsolete, leaving sensitive military communications and intelligence data vulnerable to adversaries. This risk, known as ‘Harvest Now, Decrypt Later’ (HNDL), is particularly concerning for India’s digital defence infrastructure, which relies on traditional cryptographic standards.”

The time is now for India to invest heavily in zero-trust architectures and quantum-resistant encryption for its nuclear communication systems.

Digital Sovereignty is Strategic Sovereignty

The overarching message here is: If war breaks out—even a digital one—it won’t just hit armies. It will hit us all.

India’s response cannot be purely defensive. The time has come to treat digital sovereignty as a pillar of national security and boost our cadence with Quad members, as well as with nations like Israel and other trusted partners. We need to up the ante in cyber offense (as an accepted deterrent) capabilities, not just defence.

The point is – the future deterrent is not just nuclear. It is cyber.

Are we Entering the Phase of Never Normal?

While the nuclear showdown in South Asia remains dangerously real, before the first missile is ever launched, the war may be won—or lost—in the digital domain.

What does it mean?

For policymakers, this is a wake-up call. For tech leaders, this is a duty. And for India, this is a moment of reckoning: to protect peace not just with diplomacy and defence, but with data, code, and clarity.

We are on the edge. Welcome to War 2.0: The digital frontlines of the India-Pakistan conflict.

#Cyber Warfare