WEF, CII to launch India 2025 vision

NEW DELHI: The World Economic Forum and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) will launch their vision of the future for India to 2025.

The vision is based on the views of more than 100 experts from India and abroad. The experts have examined issues including global integration, geopolitical stability, employment, demographics, infrastructure, leadership, administrative reform, political reform and rural development to formulate the vision for the future.

They are the result of a 16-month research process aimed at developing a shared understanding from which Indian policy-makers, business leaders and other key decision-makers can implement a strategy beneficial to India and the world.

The research team led by Ged Davis, managing director, Centre for Strategic Insight, World Economic Forum, and Arun Maira, Chairman, Boston Consulting Group ( India ), India, dealt with two key questions concerning India 's future:

1. Can India engage the whole nation in its quest for sustained security and prosperity?

2. How will India 's relationship with the world impact the Indian agenda?

These questions are represented respectively on the horizontal and vertical axes of a matrix that tracks how each scenario develops over a period of time.

The scenarios presented are:

Bolly World: This describes an India where initial economic success becomes unsustainable and domestic social and demographic pressures soon trigger an economic reversal. India focuses on becoming a global power and does not execute the deep and necessary reforms in key areas such as infrastructure. Instead, India relies on a few key sectors, namely IT and services, to sustain superficial reform measures. When a global slowdown occurs, regional relationships fail to sustain economic growth and India falters, causing the withdrawal of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and multinational presence.

Atakta Bharat (India Getting Stuck): Describes an India that lacks unified action and effective leadership, creating a continuous and cumulative source of problems for India. The scenario draws attention to the importance of self-organization and explores how corruption, inadequate planning and insufficient political will confounded well-intentioned attempts at reform.

Pahale India (India First): Describes a unified India where people put the needs of their community and country first. India 's dynamic internal developments inspire the rest of the world and indeed India emerges as a global economic leader. Even the economic slowdown the world experiences does not overly weaken India since the deep reforms, strong regional relationships and equitable growth lift India into a virtuous cycle of sustained economic growth, balanced development and global integration.

"While the international environment will boost or constrain India 's choices, India can shape and influence its external environment. An overriding message of these scenarios is the importance of inclusive, decisive and effective leadership," noted Ged Davis, project director and managing director, World Economic Forum.

The CII will be using these scenarios to share a common basis of understanding with its members and stakeholders in their work towards a positive scenario for India.

As Arun Maira states, "The key to the progress of India that an analysis of the three plausible scenarios points to is the strengthening of a process for diverse people to work together, voluntarily, to achieve goals at the local, state and national levels. Business organizations have a vital role to play in strengthening this democratic process, by engaging with society more broadly themselves, and by providing platforms for public dialogue and collaboration on initiatives with other stakeholders. 'The business of businesses cannot be only their own business', no matter what the view in some other societies may be, if India has to progress."

The World Economic Forum will take the results of the India Scenarios to explore the deeper issues and ramifications of India 's rise to an international audience at its Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2006 and beyond.