Trends in Mobile, wireless enterprise application development

By Carl Zetie

In the development of mobile and wireless enterprise applications, what are

the key drivers and major trends? The mobile device market will remain diverse

and chaotic for at least the next 12 months, perhaps longer, with no real

dominant, unifying platform (analogous to the Microsoft/Intel platform in the PC

market). Consequently, enterprise application developers need to deal with the

assumption that for the next year they will have to deal with diverse and

rapidly changing platforms.

Three key drivers are apparent in this mid-year review:

1. Java, in the form of Java 2 Micro Edition (J2ME), is finally arriving on

production-quality devices. In this market, Java is truly a disruptive

technology that has the potential to nullify existing market advantages and

overturn leadership positions.

2. The range of devices, in terms of format, size, power and connectivity,

continues to proliferate. Even Palm’s numerical market superiority does not

equate to dominance and, in any case, is being increasingly challenged by the

best-selling Pocket PC devices (see IdeaByte, IT

Trends: Mobile and Wireless Devices, Ken Smiley).

3. Wireless data networks, in particular third-generation (3G), remain

over-hyped and under-delivered, implying that bandwidth, latency and even sheer

connectivity cannot be ignored in architectural and design decisions (see

IdeaByte, IT

Trends: North American Wireless Services Network Deployment, Weston

Henderek).

Based on these drivers, the following trends will be witnessed in the coming

year:

* Java is beginning to emerge from the shadows, but despite pent-up demand

from developers, it will only be a force at the very low end of the device

market in 2001. As more personal digital assistant (PDA)-friendly profiles are

defined in 2002, Java’s impact will be felt across the device spectrum.

However, it may be as late as the end of 2002 before it becomes a realistic

alternative to native development on the most entrenched platforms, namely Palm

and Pocket PC.

Cross-device coverage will make Java ultimately attractive, but native

development will still be a significant force, and indeed it will remain

dominant on midrange devices in particular (Palm format) for the next six to 12

months, at least.

Visual Studio will remain strongest for those targeting Windows CE and later,

Embedded XP, as well as potentially becoming a cross-platform alternative (via

AppForge’s Visual Basic for Palm support). In the medium term, the appeal of

Visual Studio will depend on how Microsoft delivers on currently vague promises

to deliver Microsoft.NET on small devices: it has alluded to a ".NET

Compact Framework" that may even be cross-platform, but details are

elusive.

Proprietary solutions that fall outside of either the Java or Visual Studio

spheres of influence will come under increasing pressure, except at the low end

of development where solutions such as FileMaker are attractive to the

departmental or line-of-business developer.

Wireless middleware for rich clients will remain a fragmented market, with

well-established specialists such as Broadbeam and Aether prospering, as well as

forays from major vendors including Microsoft and IBM. Once again, Java

technologies (Java Messaging Service (JMS) and remote method invocation (RMI))

are potentially disruptive, but their impact is a year or more away, given the

current absence of both from published J2ME specifications.

Early proprietary offerings that have failed to articulate a clear strategic

position are already falling by the wayside. eSnapp has been little heard of

since Centura renamed itself Mbrane, and Citrix has yet to bring Project Vertigo

to market. Other small vendors will also fail in this space, especially those

that attempt to productize the underpinnings of a successful vertical product as

an infrastructure offering.

* The thin-client (wireless application server) market will continue to

consolidate savagely, with the majority of the business going to incumbent

application server vendors. Despite this, new entrants will continue to be added

to the list of markup-generating frameworks. A large majority of those that do

not add significant value beyond what the application servers provide will

continue to merge, be acquired or close up. More vendors offering specific

value-add will emerge, especially as the number of platforms to add value to

and, hence, the number of different integration channels required will reduce.

Mobile payments and location services are early examples.

* Partnerships, alliances and vendor consortia will continue to form as

vendors attempt to define standards in their own image. Consortia composed of

(or dominated by) network equipment vendors will fail to meet IT requirements,

and IT-only consortia will also be equally unsuccessful in dealing with the

realities of network limitations. Look to "cross-border" alliances

that draw equally on IT and network expertise for the most likely source of

useful standards.

Amidst all of this technology chaos, vendors will continue to come and go, as

will technologies and tools. Emphasize on products and vendors that are aligned

with standards where they exist are cross-platform, where possible and that have

a demonstrated track record of keeping pace with the evolution of the underlying

language, platform and network technologies.