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Follow UsDuring a lonely drive home one cold night I had a rare conversation with my
best pal Tweety, the cute parrot gifted to me by a friend last year. It was rare
because we talked shop. Rather, Tweety talked and I like an obedient pupil
listened to him. I reproduce here excerpts of our conversation for the readers’
benefit:
I just can’t believe this year is actually coming to an end. What do you
think of it Tweety?
All’s well that ends well. You should be happy to have lived this year.
One learnt a lifetime’s lesson all in 12 months flat. You are wiser for it.
Aren’t you?
Well, I am. Things could have been better.
Hang on. I know what you are thinking. Just think. Things could have been
worse. If you are still talking of the dotcom bust, then forget it. The Nasdaq
crashed in April and the Indian VC market just froze almost simultaneously. This
actually helped entrepreneurs right-scale their dreams and expectations.
Look beyond dotcoms and you will find a lot of bright light. For instance,
the Finance Ministry relented and removed the double taxation on ESOPs.
Otherwise, imagine all those young ones with fat ESOPs who would have paid a
fortune in taxes for a wealth they acquired only on paper. Look at SEBI, which
played a hero’s innings in the whole game. The private ISPs finally took off
the ground. Internet on cable was opened. DoT was corporatized and renamed
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. (BSNL). Europe, especially Germany, has opened its
doors to Indian professionals. The Convergence Bill was finally tabled in
Parliament.
Yes, yes, yes. But what is this SEBI talk all about now?
Well, most forget the role SEBI played this year. For one, it allowed online
trading which has since taken wings, having clocked over Rs 1,000 crore
turnover. The greatest service SEBI did to the country was not to relent to
industry pressure to allow technology companies, especially start-ups, to tap
the market without the performance clause attached. SEBI just said no and saved
the country from a major disaster.
Okay, but there is nothing much to write home about this year.
Again, don’t jump to conclusions so fast. Like the world around you, do
not let the dotcom bust cloud you. Look at PC sales, it has touched 2 million.
Cellular penetration has been the best since its debut in India with 2.9 million
cell phones sold. That is a big increase from the 1.6 million sold last year.
Though there was no major change in the tele-density, we saw private operators
like Bharti, Tata Tele and Hughes making good pace in the hitherto DoT/MTNL
dominated basic telephony segment. Don’t forget the stock market, which is
still holding against odds thanks to some strong tech companies. Last but not
the least, the dotcom bust only separated the chaff from the grain.
You sound like a government babu. All this hullabaloo notwithstanding,
India is still a poor country. A country of cheap labor. A country, which still
cannot help stem brain drain. We have failed as a country.
You are both right and wrong. India is still poor. It is losing good people
to developed countries. Its advantage is best described by cheap labor. All this
is right. But think how else you can make a difference anywhere. It’s those
drops that make the ocean.
You are wrong in saying that we have failed as a country. It is this
advantage of cheap labor that helped the country prove its prowess in the global
software market. Indian labor comes cheap not because we do not have the right
skills but because we are many with a multitude of skills.
When it comes to brain drain, think of those institutions that are
languishing due to neglect and lack of direction. Our Center for Scientific and
Industrial Research (CSIR) is a living example. If only the authorities can give
a new direction to CSIR and other great institutions and make them the best
places to work for, would our brains be draining like this? Has any industry
lobby, organization, or individual fought for this cause?
God Tweety, you are right! This never struck me. Tell me, what do you
think of the new year?
As good as the old. First, let me address your pet sector. The dotcoms will
learn the art of survival. A bright spot is the opening up of the insurance
sector, which can emerge as the biggest IT spender along with the banking
industry. So, computer and software vendors should watch out for this sector
with special care. The software industry’s growth projections are again
bullish despite a US economy slowdown. Cell phones and wireless devices should
expect healthy growth. Among new technology, broadband looks promising.
I would caution you against betting too much on broadband as yet. Take a
cautious step forward even though you might come across success stories here and
there. Also, beware of myths like convergence. Even the developing countries are
trying to put the pieces of this convergence together for some five years now.
Watch them before doing anything.
Just because of the dotcom bust, do not, for heaven’s sake, discourage
anyone from hitting the street. Remember the world lives because of
entrepreneurs.
Baapre, Tweety, if only I knew you were this wise a year ago…