Technology predictions for 2013

BANGALORE, INDIA: 2012 has been a interesting year for the technology industry. You had a number of IPOs, after a long lag, though the public offerings may not have lived up to the pre-IPO hype. Social networks were on a tear. The US presidential election, showed the importance of mining and analyzing large and disparate data sets. Tablet became more prevalent, with roughly 20 per cent of US internet users, having a tablet and with tablet prices dropping, we can only expect this number to grow.

The last few weeks of the year, are always an interesting time for us. It's a period to step back, place your gadgets on the charging bays and think about what's in store in the coming year.

Here's a list of predictions for the year ahead!

1. Cloud Computing

Increased traction from startups, large enterprises that are retiring old applications, non-US companies that are in the early stages of IT and automation.

Amazon continues its lead. Other players must work hard to catch up in mind share, developer participation, ... Price cuts will continue to be a strategy adopted by the next set of players.

2. Communications & IPv6

The doom of the Internet, the collapse of the routers due to the large routing tables, lack of reachability due to incompatibilities between IPv4 and IPv6 etc... hasn't happened. There was more FUD and much less preparation compared to Y2K!

There will be pockets of IPv6 adoption, primarily driven by ISPs, data centers and large customers running out of v4 space. No mass migration in 2013.

Expect broader rollouts of LTE, around the world. Many geographies and carriers may move from 2G or partial rollouts of 3G to LTE or 4G.

5G WiFi : Most of the consumer grade wireless access points shall support 5G WiFi or 802.11ac, by the end of the year.

3. Big Data

Hype cycle continues. Possible consolidation among NoSQL players towards the end of 2013/early 2014. This market will consolidate along a couple of commercial players and one primary open source solution.

Informal/formal attempts to standardize on data access mechanisms to commence.

Interest in Data Analysis/BI peaks towards mid-year with a number of players running towards solving the visualization and analysis problems of large, unstructured data sets.

Hadoop and variants : Currently largely confined to social media, energy and research environments. Players will have to evolve to suit the needs of the average enterprise. Ease of programming, maintainability, deployability and skilled manpower and ofcourse a real problem to be solved, will be required for the players to tap into any sizable market. Think SaaS/BDaaS (Big Data as a Service).

4. 3D Printing

Expect wider and local availability of printers.

The promise of faster turnarounds and

5. Energy

The big players continue to burn. Solyndra/Bloom have spent close to $2.5 B, but who's counting? 2013 is not the year where the technology benefits of their investments will be realized. Deployments continue, primarily at energy hog facilities.

Battery technology (automotive, smart phones) improvements should be minimal and incremental.

Startups in the green computing, desktop/server energy monitoring/optimization space will have to look for greener pastures.

6. Bring Your Own Device

Continues to be area of concern for CIOs. Security and Compliance drive investments. Acquisition of startups, by established security/network/management providers is expected.

Wider and ever increasing variety of devices drive incident-support costs and prompt CIOs to consider proactively issuing tablets broadly, to contain fragmentation.

7. Windows 8

Naysayers continue. Expect upside towards the second half of 2013. Enterprises to adopt during the next refresh cycle or in some cases for newer users. Customers evaluate post availability of low cost Windows 8 tablet variants.

8. Education

Many players, too many course aggregators. The number of players providing content for K-12 in emerging markets is even more. Monetization needs to be worked out. Expect shakeouts.

The key impediment here will be the (lack of drive by the) consumer to engage in continual self-learning. Expect the startups to continue to work on the curation, discoverability and methods of delivery, but it is the behavioral problem that needs attention.

Social & Commerce

Race begins for the next billion customers.

Being "Local" won't cut it any more. Upstarts offering "ultra-local" solutions shall get onto centrestage.

India Update : India has seen a boom in ecommerce vendors in the recent past. Niche players must grow out of their cocoon to build their base - in the process becoming more and more like the bigger players that they set out to differentiate against.

Expect a Super Cyber Monday, in 2013, with well planned campaigns by the etailers and an enthusiastic participation by the consumers. Trend to continue, going forward.

Cash on Delivery, low utilization of credit cards, low quality delivery logistics to negatively impact upstarts in emerging markets. Expect entrants to solve one or more of these problems in select markets.

Management changes at Zynga.

9. Search

Search share shall be constant. Any dips and rises for the second and third players shall be short lived. Search engines continue their journey towards becoming a "Search OS", offering up information, communications, entertainment, productivity tools. commerce and everything in between.

10. Tablets

2013 is the year, when tablets become a commodity.

A new category of users shall emerge for whom the tablets solve all of their daily consumptive needs. By and large, traditional computers are either non-existent or serve as a fallback for those really rare occasions. Students, Seniors, Field staff are likely to lead this trend.

Android OS to be available on more than just phones and tablets. Companies start looking at Android at the expense of embedded Linux and other non RT OSs.

Surface to be available at lower price points by EOY 2013. Windows 8 currently holds under three per cent of the overall share of the tablet market. Microsoft does not need to sell loads of Surface to be a winner. "Modest" but enthusiastic adoption by early adopters and influencers will translate to big sales by Windows 8 tablets by OEMs - a win-win for both Microsoft and OEMs.

Expect desktop sales to hit a new low.

Nexus series to claim some major mojo.

11. Software Defined Networking

In its current form, it is another solution looking for a problem to solve. Upstarts need it, to break into well-entrenched Cisco accounts.

Expect acquisitions by the likes of Juniper/HP and other leading networking vendors.

In its current form, expect more fragmented efforts, with no tangible benefits for the Network Engineer. Solutions from large networking OEMs shall be vendor specific, while solutions from upstarts will require substantial investments to deliver on the promise of a commoditized programmable network.

Ajay Gummadi is an entrepreneur, tech investor and advisor to startups. Most recently, he led the strategy and product management for Networking in Windows 8 at Microsoft's Indian operations.