Solar/PV supply could be twice in demand in 2010

VALENCIA, SPAIN & ROTTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS: The output of the global solar PV industry is expected to grow an astonishing 72 percent in 2008 and in 2009. In 2010, forecasts suggest that supply could be twice the demand predicted in the global PV market.

The experts participating in the Global PV Demand Conference forecasted growth of 34 percent on average in total global PV demand for 2008 to 2011.

The conclusion is that this growth will not keep pace with growth in the supply side of the industry, which will be even more spectacular. The imbalance between supply and demand will inevitably lead to price decreases in the supply chain and a consolidation phase throughout the industry. The experts expect this to happen in 2009.

In the conservative scenario presented by Prof. Travis Bradford of the Prometheus Institute, the supply of crystalline and thin-film modules could reach almost 15 GigaWatt in 2010 and 23.7 GW in 2012, up from 3.1 GigaWatt in 2007.

According to a survey of the experts at the conference organized by SolarPlaza, this supply figure for 2010 is almost double that of the forecasted global demand of 7.5 GW. According to Edwin Koot, CEO of organizer SolarPlaza, global demand could reach 40 GWp per year by 2018. This tenfold growth within 10 years is based on a conservative scenario in which grid parity will be reached by around 2012 in a number of markets.

This means that electricity from solar systems will be available at a price equal to 'grey' electricity from the grid. However, in the meantime, uncertainties and changes in government support programs in Germany, Spain and the USA could lead to a turbulent phase until 2012. Germany will be lowering its tariff for solar electricity generated by around 9 percent per year from next January. Nevertheless, the experts participating in a survey were confident that the German PV market will continue to grow by at least 20 percent per year.

The world's second-largest market - Spain - is waiting for a new feed-in tariff scheme. This new tariff and possible market cap in Spain will be crucial for continued rapid growth in the Spanish and global solar PV markets. Other emerging markets like Italy, Greece and France are very promising, but still relatively small.