So if HP-Compaq merger is approved?

CIOL Bureau
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Now that a date has been set for HP shareholders to vote on the company's

merger proposal, the likelihood of the merger's approval will probably start to

emerge in the weeks ahead.


Despite a vigorous campaign, Walter Hewlett's passion will not likely be

enough to sway HP's big institutional investors to vote down the deal,

regardless of how they feel about the merger or Fiorina's ability to integrate

two such vast and vastly different corporate cultures.

Money managers rarely go out on a limb. It's the adage "No one gets

fired for going with management's recommendation" that will cause many fund

manages to play it safe and follow Fiorina down a high-risk path.

In the end, Hewlett will control about 25-30 per cent of the shares and

another 10 per cent of the shares will vote against the merger. But enough of

Wall Street's institutional investors will go with management to swing the vote

Carly's way. And with two consecutive quarters of small but larger-than-expected

profits, the investors now have enough of an argument to support the merger.


Even if Fiorina gets the merger approved, she will come out of this with

second-degree burns and an HP workforce demoralized by the battle and the

massive lay offs that are promised in the wake of the merger.

Most signs continue to point towards the new HP losing market share on many

fronts and conventional wisdom dictates that for the next two years product and

marketing strategies will be chaotic as product groups from both companies will

fight for the survival of their projects, technologies and products.

Fiorina may win the shareholders battle. But she may find out it will be a

pyres victory at best.