NSN, Alcatel and now Cisco: Is WiMAX losing grounds?

BANGALORE, INDIA: Cisco's withdrawal from WiMAX base station segment, following Nokia Siemens Network and Alcatel Lucent, brings in several questions on whether WiMAX will be able to sustain the pressure from LTE for 4G supremacy.

Also Read: WiMAX: The wireless Broadband

Nishant Singh, managing analyst, infrastructure systems, Ovum India, says that the spate of high profile exits from the WiMAX's fold: NSN, Alcatel-Lucent and Cisco, certainly do not augur well for its image.

“In terms of perception, WiMAX certainly is losing its grounds to LTE as the front-runner for the dominant technology in 4G,” he says, adding “This move from Cisco suggests that the company accedes that LTE will emerge as the dominant technology over WiMAX; at least in the US.”

Cisco, which entered the WiMAX market with the acquisition of Navini Networks in 2007, got a blow when its major WiMAX customer, Clearwire Corp., expressed uneasiness about WiMAX. The latter even suggested that it wouldn’t be too difficult for it to shift network allegiance and subscribers to LTE, if required, observes Singh.

Moreover, with major US telecoms carriers, including AT&T and Verizon, having pledged allegiance to LTE, Cisco seems to have realized that there would be an increasingly small market for WiMAX, especially in its domestic market.

Although Cisco stayed away from commenting on its competitors' move to withdraw from WIMAX space, or whether it's the above mentioned reasons for its sudden withdrawal from the same, it, however, maintained that the company does not have any plans of completely giving up associations with WiMAX.

Varghese Thomas, head, corporate communications, Cisco India & SAARC, said: “Cisco believes that WiMAX is a great technology that will help bringing broadband to key markets. LTE and WiMAX are not competitors The company will continue to provide WiMAX network technologies and also facilitate interoperability between radio technologies.”

Navini gives way to Starent?

According to Singh, while Cisco's move to make an entry into WiMAX space might have made sense way back in 2007, the market developments ever since have not been very positive with regard to WiMAX. It seems that Cisco no longer believes in the commercial viability of this technology.

Thomas says that Cisco intends to redirect the resources working on WiMAX into the other strategic investment areas.

“For Cisco, Navini’s WiMAX radio access network gears do not seem to have been playing a major role in Cisco’s WiMAX project wins, as it should have. Most of the contributions in Cisco’s WiMAX projects instead seem to be in IP equipment space,” Singh says adding, “Navini could still have a role in contributing to Cisco’s EDGE portfolio where it could contribute to Cisco’s Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi mesh portfolios to support WiMAX.”

Singh also notes that Starent will play an integral role in Cisco’s carrier routing systems and its future plans for “laying the foundation for the next-generation Internet”.

Blow to India, a WiMAX enthusiast?

Cisco has announced that it will continue to provide technology that will connect to WiMAX networks and facilitate interoperability between radio technologies. However, countries such as India and that of several non-US countries, who are very enthusiastic about WiMAX, are sure to be pondering on this move for long.

Moreover, will such advancements force Intel, who announced the next version for WiMAX, the 802.16m replacing 802.16e; touted to be ready for deployment in 2012, to take a re-look at its WiMAX strategy, needs to be watched.

“Intel's touted next version of WiMAX is still a good three years off. Despite the fact that there is a clear road map for it, proponents of WiMAX will have to increasingly battle fears that WiMAX will emerge as second fiddle to LTE in the long run,” feels Singh.

“WiMAX has been seeing a positive response in emerging markets outside the US, where its adoption isn’t hindered by legacy infrastructure. While Cisco’s move certainly doesn’t help the WiMAX adoption in these regions; however, they are less likely to be affected by the news,” notes Singh.

Singh also feels that the more pertinent question for its adopters in India and other WiMAX enthusiast countries continues to be around the resiliency of WiMAX technology in general; irrespective of its success vis-à-vis LTE in other regions.

“The question of WiMAX vs LTE in these countries will therefore still take a while to have an outcome,” Singh rounds it up.