Mini notebooks salvage PC volume, shipment falls

FRAMINGHAM, USA: Global PC shipments fell 2.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2009 (2Q09), while shipment value was down 19.1 percent over the same period, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

Consumer portables were the only area of growth, with shipments increasing 44 percent from a year ago – rebounding from a low of 28 percent growth and approaching the 44-55 percent range of 2007 and 2008. However, commercial portables growth remained depressed at –16 percent, and desktop volumes declined 17 percent as businesses limited spending and the market continued its shift to portable PCs.

Within consumer portables, traditional notebooks recovered to 13 percent year-on-year growth from almost no growth in the first quarter, but shipment value was down six percent. The mini notebook share of consumer portables was up to almost 26 percent from just five percent a year ago. With mininotebooks averaging just over $400 each, compared to more than $900 for traditional notebooks, this shift is taking a toll on shipment value.

Going forward, the market should stabilize a bit for both units and value. Desktop volume will be roughly flat in 2010, while portable PC growth of 16.5 percent in 2010 will drive overall volume gains. Mininotebooks will continue to grow, but the introduction of CULV-based systems should limit the share captured by mininotebooks – and the resulting price erosion. IDC expects portable PC shipments to increase at an average rate of over 17 percent through 2013 (compound annual growth rate 2009-2013), driving more than 11 percent average growth in total PC shipments and almost five percent in shipment value.

Jay Chou, research analyst, IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, said: "Although mininotebooks have hurt margins of traditional notebooks, we can expect Ultrathin Notebooks based on new low voltage processors from Intel and AMD to somewhat stem the tide. By integrating portability, longer battery life, and better multimedia specs and performance, the growth of these ultra thin-n-light systems could give mininotebooks and traditional premium ultra portables a run for their money."

Loren Loverde, director, IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, said: "While we expect mininotebook share and growth to stabilize with greater competition from traditional notebooks, the stakes are enormous. Buyers need to be willing to pay a premium for more robust systems, which may be a challenge in tight economic times and in an era of 'good enough' computing.:

"On the other hand, not everyone wants an entry-level system, and rising commercial spending should boost demand for traditional notebooks. After all, even prices on traditional notebooks are falling, and device cost needs to be balanced with the device capabilities, resulting productivity, and total cost of ownership including maintenance costs," Loverde added.