Mainframe skills shortage: Drama vs. reality

David Mastrobattista

As IT professionals who are regarded as part of "the mainframe

generation" either move into new management careers or perhaps move a shade

closer to early retirement years, the issue of a perceived mainframe skills

shortage often resurfaces. In some scenarios this is a legitimate concern, while

in other situations the issue is raised more by media drama or as a smokescreen

by manufacturers offering mainframe alternatives. We would suggest that any

skills shortage that may exist typically pertains not only to the mainframe

platform specifically but also, more importantly, to critical business

operations knowledge on a much broader scale. Nonetheless, the term

"mainframe skills shortage" should be used carefully, since the

mainframe systems of today are quite different from their earlier predecessors.

Naturally, where mainframe legacy systems consist primarily of COBOL

applications with little or no plans to modernize them, COBOL skills will need

to be maintained more critically in future years. However, recent market

activity would suggest that mainframe-related technologies are indeed evolving

to support a different class of business-critical, strategic enterprise

applications. Consequently, as this evolution occurs, the definition of what

constitutes "mainframe skills" evolves accordingly.

Techniques to modernize legacy applications on the mainframe range from basic

Web enabling to more exotic J2EE deployment within IBM’s CICS Transaction

Server, WebSphere Application Server and BEA’s WebLogic environments. Today’s

mainframes are also increasingly being used in support of PeopleSoft, SAP and

Siebel applications to a degree that simply wasn’t even on most IT

professionals’ radar screens five years ago. Indeed, Giga estimates that as

recent as 1998, only 20 per cent of mainframe million instructions per second (MIPS)

shipped were supporting modern workloads. In 2001, that percentage jumped to

approximately 60 per cent. And already in first quarter 2002, despite IBM’s

reported revenue decline for all segments of the eServer family (as compared to

revenue in first quarter 2001), the company reported 70 per cent of mainframe

MIPS shipped were deployed in support of new workloads.

In addition, mainframe-related technologies designed to reduce the complexity

of earlier systems and to improve operations productivity are making inroads

into the market, thus lessening the reliance upon earlier skill sets that

encompassed a greater "behind-the-scenes" understanding of mainframe

internals. Elements of IBM’s Project eLiza have been deployed first on the

mainframe platform and emphasize improved capabilities with respect to system

configuration, workload management, systems management, security and overall

self-optimization.

So when the term "mainframe skills" is bandied about in trade

journals and corporate conference rooms, one needs to carefully define what that

truly means at any given point in time in each. Again, the concern generally

relates to older legacy COBOL applications, older file and database systems and

batch-oriented Job Control Language (JCL) streams. And yes, to varying degrees,

these may always be a part of the mainframe world. However, every technology

platform will have its own set of legacy issues to deal with over time courtesy

of hardware, middleware and "application-ware" technology treadmills.

Managing this challenge in the mainframe world will only better enable IT

organizations to manage the issue when it eventually surfaces – and it

inevitably will, if it hasn’t already – in Unix, NT and network environments

as well.

Had mainframe-related technologies not evolved at all, we might suggest that

a perceived mainframe skills shortage would negatively impact the platform’s

future role in IT. However, given the recent evidence that illustrates this

platform has indeed evolved, not only in potential but also as represented by

market acceptance of new workload deployment on the platform, we’re more

likely to recommend IT managers gauge an accurate assessment of any potential

"skills shortage" by closely tracking technical skill sets and general

business operations knowledge as these elements relate to IT’s role in support

of the business.

If your mainframe application suite tends to be more "legacy" than

"modern" or that more senior IT personnel carry a disproportionate

level of business operations knowledge, then plan for either a more defined

skills transfer or more aggressive modernization of legacy systems now, before

the "skills-heavy" personnel entertain new career directions or even

retirement. In either case, we believe the situation is quite manageable at this

time. And given the right blend of skills transfer and exploitation of new

technology enhancements being introduced into the marketplace, the mainframe

will most certainly continue to play a vital role for the foreseeable future.