Mainframe evolution momentum continues

David Mastrobattista

Looking forward into 2002, Giga believes that the mainframe marketplace will continue to experience its most recent, renewed level of resurgence. Despite IBM’s "sole-provider" status as the market’s exclusive 64-bit, z/architecture mainframe computing supplier, we continue to see more than sufficient innovation delivered on the platform – building on much of the momentum experienced in 2001– in an effort to make eServer zSeries systems attractive to a wider audience of IT professionals.

Key Drivers

• Continued economic pressure to make more efficient use of existing IT infrastructures: The current economic climate encourages enterprises to revisit TCO models that, today, tilt the scales in favor of more centralized, cost-efficient computing models. Prior distributed computing models –including dispersed Unix servers with relatively modest utilization levels, and Windows/NT servers experiencing an increased number of downtime issues and increased administrative costs – are being heavily scrutinized.


• Recent announcement/availability of new Linux distributions from key Linux distributors
: Beginning in November 2001, Red Hat announced general availability of its mainframe Linux, joining other well-known Linux distributors SuSEand Turbolinuxwhich had earlier provided mainframe Linux releases. Additionally, SuSE announced availability for late November 2001 of its newest mainframe Linux release, based on the 2.4 kernel, in support of the zSeries 64-bit virtual addressing architecture.

• Increased maturity of Linux within mainframe environments
: IBM’s investment in the Linux Open Source Initiative has now been followed by increasing numbers of enterprise-class applications for Linux from both the open source community, as well as key ISVs, including BEA Systems, BMC, Bynari, Computer Associates, Innovation Data Processing, Sanchez Computer Associates, SAP, Sendmail, and Software AG.

• Enhancements to z/VM software licensing
: Giga believes that recent interest in mainframe computing circles has not been driven by Linux alone, but rather by the convergence of Linux and VM technologies on the mainframe. To that end, IBM has introduced engine-based licensing for z/VM Version 4 (and later) – in the form of a software license model consisting of an initial onetime- charge (OTC) with annual service/support charges – in an effort to broaden the appeal of Linux to an even smaller tier of enterprises looking to improve overall total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) with respect to server-farm consolidation.

• Availability of hardware- and firmware-based partitioning technologies by mainframe computing vendors that encourage "workload-based" software pricing plans
: IBM, Amdahl and Hitachi Data Systems have each delivered partitioning technologies that allow software pricing based on virtual server definitions rather than total system capacity. Additionally, IBM has delivered a sub-capacity software reporting mechanism, whereby customers can monitor specific capacity levels, at which participating software products (from IBM and select ISVs) can be licensed.

Key Trends

• Continued increases in quarterly mainframe million instruction per second (MIPS) shipments, as measured relative to the same quarter 12 months earlier: Throughout 2001, IBM has announced relative percentage increases in quarterly mainframe MIPS shipped of approximately 40 percent. Beginning with first quarter of 2001, quarterly MIPS shipped were reported at 40 percent, 43 percent and 42 percent, above capacity shipped in first quarter of 2000, second quarter of 2000 and third quarter of 2000, respectively.


• Healthy acceptance of IBM’s latest eServer zSeries z900 computing systems
: In less than one year, IBM delivered over 1,000 zSeries z900 models. While expected numbers were shipped to customers needing capacity in excess of that available by the largest of G6-technology systems, a surprisingly large number of customers opted for smaller z900 models as well, whose capacities overlapped that provided by G5/G6-technology systems.

• Increased percentage of MIPS shipments being deployed for newer, "non-traditional" S/390 workloads
: Giga believes that through much of 2001, approximately 60 percent of S/390 and eServer zSeries MIPS delivered into the marketplace have been deployed for new-application environments, including Linux and WebSphere. Moving into 2002, this number has the potential to move toward 70 percent, as both Linux and WebSphere mainframe technologies mature further.

• Continued migration toward z/OS operating system release levels
: With no new architectural level set requirements guaranteed through z/OS 1.4, customers desiring to maintain operating system release level currency can do so on eServer zSeries systems as well as G5/G6-technology systems – although only eServer zSeries customers will be able to exploit the full 64-bit z/architecture.

• Continued adoption of mainframe Linux solutions
: In comparison to the approximately 12,000 OS/390 licenses in the marketplace, we believe in excess of 4,000 mainframe Linux downloads have occurred from Linux distribution Web sites. Of these, there are approximately 300 well-defined and documented customers who have purchased computing hardware capacity specifically for Linux workloads. As we leave 2001 and head toward 2002, Giga estimates that between 50 and 60 enterprises are running Linux in production mode and approximately one dozen are running a Linux workload at mission-critical status. During 2002, there is significant potential for the "well-defined and documented" category of enterprises purchasing hardware capacity in support of Linux workloads to more than double in size.

• Exploitation of the "sub-capacity" workload license charge (WLC) model
: With the introduction of a sub-capacity reporting tool by IBM in September 2001, we anticipate customers with z900 systems running z/OS will explore the feasibility of "sub-capacity" WLC software license pricing. However, the overall savings benefit with this software license model will likely vary tremendously from customer to customer. While Giga applauds IBM and selected ISVs for making a model like this available, we also recognize that the relative effectiveness of this model will largely depend on the extent to which customers will – or perhaps can – coordinate hardware capacity planning, software capacity planning and software asset management disciplines.