Job optimism grows in Q2; India tops consumer confidence

NEW YORK, USA: Global consumer confidence increased one index point to 97 in the second quarter of 2014, the highest score since Q1 2007, according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen. This follows a two-point increase at the start of the year that marked the global index's first return to pre-recession levels. Additionally, half of global respondents believed the job market would be good or excellent in the upcoming year, a 1-percentage-point increase from the first quarter and a level not reached since 2007.

Among the world's biggest economies, consumer confidence increased six points over Q1 2014 in Italy (51), four points in the U.S. (104), three points in the U.K. (90), and one point in France (60). China's consumer confidence remained flat at 111, while confidence declined eight points in Japan (73) and three points in Germany (96) compared to the previous quarter.

Regional consumer confidence increased three and two points, respectively, in North America (103) and Europe (77), compared to the first quarter. Confidence was highest in the Asia-Pacific region, which held steady from the first quarter at 106. Confidence declined over the previous quarter in Latin America (90) and the Middle East/Africa (93), decreasing three points and one point, respectively.

"Steady gains across confidence metrics within parts of Europe and buoyant increases in North America strike a positive note with regard to economic recovery in mature markets," said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a division of Nielsen. "The key to continued sustained economic expansion, however, will be further strengthening of the job market, which is vital for increased consumer spending."

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions measures consumer confidence, major concerns, and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access in 60 countries. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism.

In the latest round of the survey, conducted May 12-30, 2014, consumer confidence increased in 52 percent of markets measured by Nielsen, compared to 60 percent in the previous quarter (Q1 2014). India (128) increased seven points to report the highest consumer confidence index score, surpassing Indonesia (123), which had topped the index for five consecutive quarters. Portugal reported the lowest consumer confidence score (48), a decline of three points compared to the first quarter. Hong Kong (103) and Japan (73) each reported an eight-point decrease over the previous quarter.

Positive perceptions about local job prospects over the next 12 months increased in the second quarter in every region except Latin America. North America reported the biggest quarterly surge in job optimism, increasing 8 percentage points to 46 percent.

More than half (56 percent) of global respondents viewed their personal finances positively, a slight increase from the past three consecutive quarters in which it held steady at 55 percent. North America reported the biggest regional increase, with 63 percent of respondents feeling secure in money matters over the next 12 months, up from 59 percent in the first quarter. Latin America reported the only decline, with 60 percent believing the state of their finances was good or excellent, down from 63 percent in the previous quarter. At 39 percent, European respondents were least confident about finances.

In Asia-Pacific, confidence in India (128) increased seven points over the previous quarter, the biggest increase of the 60 countries measured. Confidence also increased in the Philippines (120), South Korea (53), and Malaysia (93) and held steady in China for a third consecutive quarter at 111. Australia's index (85) fell four points compared to the first quarter, its third straight quarterly decrease and the country's lowest score since Nielsen began measuring consumer confidence in 2005.