Gartner's 2004 review of the year foresees trouble ahead for chief
information officers (CIOs), who will need to improve their business skills to
become part of the board, manage increasingly difficult IT architectures and be
much more forward thinking in their plans.
The report cautions that CIOs must decide what kind of careers they want,
opting for roles as long-term industry specialists or short-term change
managers.
The report recommends CIOs to decide now on which career path to take, and to
start investing in the skills to make the move before the market makes the
decision for them.
The report cautions that the long-term trend to outsourcing will continue,
but there will also be a move to insource some systems. Companies which do not
plan outsourcing well are going to suffer systems failure and have no choice but
to insource. "Despite the fact that IT is already a difficult enough place to
work, it's going to get more complex," said John Mahoney, chief of research for
IT management and services at Gartner.
Gartner recommends that IT leaders have to shift away from technical skills
towards relationships, flexibility and business processes and a bottom line
which speaks of unique style of IT leadership.
It is recommended that CIOs take on non-IT business projects to prove their
credentials to the board, and hone their PR skills to promote themselves and
their departments.
The fundamental problem is that chief executives perceive IT as a barrier,
not an enabler, to growth, Gartner's research indicates.
The software industry is contributing to the complexity which CIOs are facing
as it is increasingly trying to lock customers into specific software systems.
Overall, the picture for the next year is uncertain, both for CIOs and for
business generally, according to Gartner.
"This is a more uncertain year for economic planning," said Mark Raskino,
research director for business process at Gartner.
"Chief executives are going for growth and IT has to support that, but plans
are subject to change because it's an unpredictable year.
"The probability for a worst-case scenario has gone up owing to things like
confidence in the American economy."
One thing is certain: there will be fewer jobs to go round. Gartner estimates
that by 2008 IT departments will employ half as many staff as they did in 2000.
Of the half that leave, 50 per cent will be re-employed in IT service
industries, and only half of those jobs will be in a different geographical
location.