Internet traffic to quadruple by 2015: Cisco

SAN FRANCISCO, USA: Considering the momentum of the growth of Internet use, the total global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015, says Cisco.

Cisco's fifth annual Visual Networking Index Forecast, released on Wednesday, predicted almost three billion people, which would be more than 40 per cent of the world population by 2015, will be using the Internet and the traffic will grow to 966 exabytes per year.

The study said there will be 15 billion network-connected devices, about two per person worldwide.

“We are indeed on the threshold of the 'Zettabyte Era',” according to Cisco vice president Suraj Shetty, who wrote a blog on the study.

The study also said that by 2015, the traffic equivalent of all the movies ever made will cross the Internet every 5 minutes, and also, one million minutes of video content will cross the global network every second.

It said global IP traffic would hit 80.5 exabytes per month by 2015, up from 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010, and that the Asia Pacific region would generate the most IP traffic by 2015 at 24.1 exabytes per month thus surpassing the North America region. The Middle East and Africa are expected to be the fastest-growing regions for IP traffic during the period, added Cisco.

Wi-Fi to surpass broadband

Cisco also predicted that Wi-Fi traffic, connecting devices including tablets, would surpass fixed broadband traffic in 2015.

"The explosive growth in Internet data traffic, especially video, creates an opportunity in the years ahead for optimizing and monetizing visual, virtual and mobile Internet experiences," said Suraj Shetty.

And the implications are significant, he said. These are:

A strong and increasing need to migrate to IPv6 systems and next-generation Internet capabilities.

4G adoption may happen faster as mobile users demand services and content similar to fixed service.

IP networks must be intelligent and flexible enough to support video, which will be two-thirds of fixed and mobile network traffic.

PC Vs Tablets, smartphones

While personal computers generated 97 per cent of consumer Internet traffic last year, the share would drop to 87 per cent in the next four years as more people turn to smartphones, tablets, and Web-enabled televisions, the Cisco study said.

Online video traffic, including data rich 3-D and high-definition transmissions, was projected to be 14 times greater in 2015 compared to last year.

Mobile data traffic was expected to increase by a magnitude of 26 times in the same period.

According to Cisco, there are four things that drive this rapid growth — increase in connected devices such as tablets and smartphones, greater number of Internet users (more than 3 billion projected by 2015), faster broadband speeds, with average fixed broadband speeds hitting 28 Mbps by 2015, and the growth in video content, which would account for 1 million minutes of Internet traffic every second by 2015.