MUMBAI, INDIA: Indian consumer communications market revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6 per cent from Rs. 211 billion in 2008 to reach Rs. 240 billion in 2013, says a Gartner report.
The communications market includes Consumer Voice Service, consumer broadband access and total consumer Internet access. The consumer fixed line subscriber base will remain at 37 million connections by 2013, while the broadband subscriber base is expected to increase by a CAGR of 26 per cent to reach 16 million subscribers during the same period, said a press release.
Neha Gupta, senior research analyst, Gartner said, “The Indian fixed-line market will see growth from broadband and Internet access sectors, which will together grow at the rate of 22 per cent to reach Rs. 55 billion by 2013. The broadband sector will see strong growth, as increased focus will be put on building the last-mile access.”
She added that the voice market would contract through 2013 as the number of consumer fixed lines would continue to fall slightly, mostly because pressure from mobile substitution would persist.
Revenue from voice services would continue to dominate the overall fixed line services in India. However, its contribution would go down from 91 per cent in 2008 to 77 per cent in 2013. The number of fixed lines will continue to decrease slightly until 2012, but will start picking up again in 2013 as carriers will focus more on fixed broadband, bundling voice lines free with it. The connection and calling revenue will, however, continue to fall slowly through 2013. Migration to Voice over Broadband (VoBB) will pick up, but will remain very low.
Broadband would continue to grow strongly from 2008 to 2013. Revenue from broadband services will significantly contribute to the overall growth of fixed line services in India, with a CAGR of 25 per cent from 2008 to 2013. Broadband will overtake dial-up as the primary access technology by the end of 2012. Gartner predicts a significant drop in broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) as penetration to semi-urban and rural areas increase.
As compared to other Asian countries, broadband household penetration rate in India will still be low at 6 per cent in 2013.
The Indian broadband market continues to be dominated by Digital Subscriber Line (DSL). DSL connections accounted for more than 86 per cent of all the broadband connections in 2008 and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25 per cent by 2013.
DSL would continue to dominate through to the end of 2013. As regards other broadband technologies, the operators will start rolling-out FTTx/Ethernet aggressively after 2012 as demand for high speed broadband and bandwidth-heavy Internet applications increase. Wireless broadband services will also grow significantly from 2010, expanding broadband coverage to areas previously not covered by copper telephone lines, the release added.