BANGALORE
- - In its latest predictions, Gartner projects that total Indian enterprise IT
spending (not including consumer IT spend), including hardware, software,
telecommunications and IT services, will reach 1093 billion rupees in 2006
growing at a CAGR of 20.8 percent from 04 to 09.
India can expect to see an
annual enterprise ICT spending growth rate (AGR) of 23 percent in 2006, with 739
billion rupees being spent on telecommunication services and equipment (a 27
percent increase over 2005), 172 billion rupees spent on hardware (a 13 percent
increase over 2005), 141 billion rupees on IT services (a 22 percent increase
over 2005) and 41 billion rupees on software (at 17 percent increase over 2005).
Gartner has projected that
total global enterprise ICT spending (excluding internal IT spend on salaries
etc) will reach US$1768 billion in 2006, and is growing at a CAGR of 4.5 per
cent from 2004 through 2009. By contrast, enterprise ICT spending in Asia
Pacific will reach almost US$210 billion in 2006, with a CAGR of 7.5 per cent
over the same period.
Announcing the top ten trends and predictions
for 2006, Gartner said the impact of consumer technologies on enterprise IT will
continue to spread rapidly, despite attempts to slow them down or policies
designed to discourage their use. Gartner predicts that between 2006 and 2012
the majority of new information technologies adopted by enterprises will have
their roots in the consumer market.
"Many technologies have in the past been
introduced and have found acceptance in consumer markets, only to be ignored by
enterprises," said Dion Wiggins, vice president and research director at
Gartner.
"Dismissing
graphical user interfaces as toys and the Internet as 'not ready for prime time'
are classic examples. The trend continues today with technologies such as
Instant Messaging and games and in the future Web 2.0. If history repeats
itself, we are ignoring important technologies today that will have enterprise
impact in the future," added Wiggins.
Consumer technology earmarked for enterprise adoption includes 3D graphics, rich
media and consumer-oriented Web sites - such as Amazon, eBay and Google - that
are emerging as platforms capable of delivering services to support business
processes.
"This trend is being
driven faster and further in Asia Pacific which is both the major producer of
consumer technology and, in certain parts of the region, highly tech-savvy. We
expect to see increasingly innovative design and business models emerge in Asia
as we move along the trend line of 'sold in Asia' to 'made in Asia' to 'designed
in Asia' to 'dreamt up in Asia'," said Wiggins.
Some
of the other
predictions of Gartner forecast
include:
Asian
development and protection of IP
Across Asia Pacific IT
development is coming of age and Gartner sees Asian companies leading
development in most areas of consumer technology, mobile and broadband content
and associated business models. The region will, however, lag in the
development of enterprise applications. The rapid maturing of IT development in
China and India will see trade between the two explode and result in firms
gaining competencies that can be applied across emerging markets globally.
"As research and
development across the region gears up we see intellectual property protection
following suit. The percentage of GDP spent on R&D is rising rapidly,
particularly in China, toward OECD levels and technology/IP value chains are
emerging. This will provide the incentive for Asian companies with multinational
intent to put additional pressure on governments to enforce IP protection and
support IP creation at home," said Wiggins.
Open
Source Software
Running counter to the
traditional software business model based on IP, Gartner also sees open source
software (OSS) competing directly with commercial software in many segments of
the enterprise market and taking on an expanded role in the small-to-medium
business sector. With OSS adoption rising rapidly, particularly in China and
India, Gartner believes that by 2010 it will account for 20 per cent of the
global software market, displacing over US$100 billion in revenues from
traditional software vendors.
Dealing
with information overload
Gartner has also identified a
rising requirement for Enterprise Information Management (EIM), driven both by
the need for process simplification and operational efficiency, and by
enterprise agility and competitive differentiation. It predicts that, by 2015,
enterprises will have to deal with 30 times more data than in 2005 and therefore
strong competence in data management, metadata and analytics will be a very
significant differentiator.
To
cope with the increasing volume and velocity of information, organisations will
need to adopt "Real Time Infrastructure" (RTI) which relies
extensively on virtualisation. Now being adopted on x86 servers,
virtualisation can improve IT resource utilisation and increase flexibility in
adapting to changing requirements and workload. With the addition of
service-level, policy-based automation, virtualisation leads to RTI according to
Gartner.
Linked
to this trend, the strategic impact of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and
Web services will broaden, with increasing emphasis on business process driving
adoption of the "Business Process Platform". Gartner sees
multi-product vendors combining middleware with an extensive set of
software-as-services and knowledge-based assets to provide composition
portfolios from which composite applications can be implemented.
Evolution
of Outsourcing
As global outsourcing evolves
to "multisourcing" based on utility-style IT services, components for
composite application in a SOA environment can come from external service
providers as well as in-house sources. Gartner believes that organisations that
figure out how to "do multisourcing" will win and predicts that
through 2008 more than 50 per cent of new outsourcing deals will have an IT
utility services component.
In line with the evolution of
IT from a product to a service model, Gartner analysts believe the IT profession
is now at a crossroads. By 2010 Gartner predicts the profession will have split
into four separate and distinct domains of expertise: Technology Infrastructure
and Services; Information Design and Management; Process Design and Management;
and Relationship and Sourcing Management.
Risk
aversion and attack readiness
While Asia is now the source of
much new technology, some of the biggest threats to enterprises also originate
in the region. Gartner believes that by the middle of next year less than 5 per
cent of businesses will have adjusted or have created business continuity plans
to cater for disasters such as avian influenza. IT preparedness integrated into
a solid business continuity plan can greatly mitigate risks and minimise impact.
Gartner also believes organisations that implement an effective incident
response plan will experience an 80 per cent increase in the speed at which they
recover from attacks by criminal organisations using the latest in malicious
software.
Fore
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