India PC shipments to grow 19.4 p.c in 2010

BANGALORE, INDIA: The Asia Pacific personal computer (PC) market is forecast to grow 20.3 per cent in 2010, reaching 114.6 million unit shipments, according to Gartner’s latest forecast. India’s recovering economy will be the main driver behind PC shipment growth, which is expected to be 19.4 per cent, said the study.

Spending on PCs in Asia Pacific is forecast to grow 12.4 per cent in 2010, compared to only 2.9 per cent in 2009, due to a sharper decline in average selling prices for PCs in 2009, it said.

Gartner had recently trimmed the global IT spend forecast.

“While overall growth in Asia Pacific was strong in 2009, at a country level India and the more mature markets with high PC penetration exhibited weak PC shipments,” said Lillian Tay, principal research analyst at Gartner.

“However, the improving worldwide economy should lead to better confidence to invest in 2010, especially in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. Similarly in India, PC buyers are now more confident to spend, with employment on the upswing,” she added.

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In 2009, PC unit growth was spearheaded by China and the South Asian markets. China took 59 per cent of all PCs shipped in the region, up from 54 per cent in 2008. In 2010, government stimulus programs, including stimulation of domestic consumption, helped to mitigate the adverse effect of the US and European recessions on these export-oriented economies.

Gartner expects China to represent 60 per cent of all PCs shipped in Asia Pacific and 19 per cent of PC shipments worldwide in 2010, the forecast said.

Healthy growth expected in India

India’s recovering economy, which is expected to grow 8.5 per cent in 2010, will be the main driver behind the PC shipment growth of 19.4 per cent, compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent in 2009. Growth will be restored to industries most affected by the recession; spurring major hiring that will require increased PC budgets to support new employees.

There is more "bullishness" witnessed among small and midsize businesses, while government and education are the other two verticals that have increased their spending. At the same time, increasing job opportunities creates a sense of optimism and security among consumers, leading to an increase in discretionary spending.

According to Gartner, the rural economy is doing better, which should lead to incremental PC sales.

“In the mature PC markets, we expect stronger growth for 2010 and 2011 as PC replacements gain momentum. This reflects an expectation of increased IT budgets and adoption of Windows 7 by organizations replacing PCs that are beyond their useful life,” said Tay.

Mobile-for-desk-based PC substitution continues unabated and first-time PC buyers are increasingly turning to mobile PCs. Mobile PC units will grow 35.2 per cent in 2010 reaching 53.2 million. In 2011, a milestone will be reached where mobile PC shipments will take 51 per cent share of all PCs shipped in Asia Pacific, Gartner added.

Overall Asia Pacific desk-based PC unit shipments will increase 9.9 per cent to 61.4 million units in 2010, largely driven by the success of a rural PC program in China, where 70 per cent to 80 per cent of PCs shipped are desk-based PCs. In other markets it will be driven by the replacement of aged desk-based PCs.

In China, PC shipment growth is expected to reach 22.1 per cent. In more mature markets (Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore), business will be the biggest growth area in 2010 due to PC replacements that were held off in the past 18 months, says the forecast.