India to have 1m. Net subscribers by 2000: IDC

BANGALORE: Internet subscriber base in India is expected to cross the one million-mark by the end of year 2000. This has been revealed in the latest survey conducted by IDC India. By the end of 2003, the subscriber base is expected to cross 7.5 million. IDC India has estimated that there were close to half a million Internet subscribers at the end of 1999.

The survey has forecast that the Internet subscriber base in the country would grow at a CAGR of 95 per cent during the years 1999 to 2003. Amongst segments, the commercial segment comprising of small/medium/large business, government and education and research segments would witness a CAGR of 57 per cent whereas the home segment would grow at a whopping 163 per cent.

It is assumed that during the forecast period, the Indian economy would continue to grow at its current pace, IDC said in a release. It is also expected that the Indian government would generally push Internet adoption as a national policy.

IDC India expected that the Internet subscriber growth would be positively influenced by the adoption of unlimited Internet access model (pay a fixed amount for a period and use Internet as much as you want during the period) by ISPs in the country. A few of the ISPs have already announced unlimited Internet access packages. A majority of ISPs would adopt this access model latest by the end of 2000.

During the forecast period, share of home Internet subscribers is expected to grow from 20 per cent in 1999 to 67 per cent by end of 2003. By end 2001, it is expected that there would as many Internet subscribers in homes as in the commercial segment.

According to IDC India, several factors account for this dramatic growth of Internet subscribers in the home segment. During the past few years, a constant drop in the prices of multimedia PCs has contributed to the growth of PC shipments in home segment. It is expected that PC shipments to the home segment would continue to grow unabated in the coming years as well. An increase in PC installed base in home would have a direct impact on the home Internet subscriber base.

Internet access through cable is also expected to witness healthy growth during the coming years. IDC (India) expects that by the end of 2001, Internet access through cable would be available in most of the cities/ towns having population more than one million. An expected decline in cable modem prices by 30 per cent per year in the next two years would also help in the adoption of Internet access through cable modems in homes as well as small and medium businesses.

In the coming two years, sufficient and relevant Indian content would be available to fuel the demand for home Internet subscriptions. Content related to education, entertainment and kids would be the one drawing most interest from the home segment. IDC India is also confident of the availability of sufficient Indian vernacular language content during the said period.

By the end of 2002, all major ISPs would be offering Internet access in mass customised packages. Indian market has already started moving in this direction with Internet access currently available in a variety of packages, which helps the consumer to pick the one most suitable to his or her needs. By the first quarter of 2001, most of the basic service providers would start revenue sharing with various ISPs. This is expected to push the overall cost of Internet access downwards. Naturally, basic service providers also operating in the Internet access domain would be the first to adopt this model, said the release.