IMF sees fragile global recovery, no double-dip

WASHINGTON, USA: A fragile global economic recovery is underway, and a double-dip recession remains unlikely, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.

IMF spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson told a regular briefing for reporters that questions remained about the sustainability of the recovery, which has so far been driven by policy actions by various governments and central banks.

“We have seen some signs of recovery in Europe and the U.S. We do believe that the economic recovery, the recovery from the crisis, is beginning in terms of output. It will take some time for that to be translated into employment,” she said.

The United States economy resumed growth in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. The euro zone registered its first quarter of economic growth in more than a year in the July-September period.

Given that the recovery in both regions has been largely driven by government stimulus, there have been fears of a double-dip recession - a scenario where the economy perks up temporarily only to contract again.

"The recovery ... is somewhat fragile. Our best case scenario is that there will continue to be growth and no double dip. It will be important that policymakers maintain a cautious approach," said Atkinson.

Labor markets have generally lagged the recovery, though there are signs in the United States that the job market is starting to stabilize.