Caroline Humer
NEW YORK: Weak microelectronics sales and a technology spending downturn due
to the economic slowdown will cut into International Business Machines Corp.'s
quarterly earnings, analysts and investors said on Wednesday.
Following the Sept. 11 attacks, analysts have lowered earnings expectations
for the Armonk, New York-based computer hardware and services giant,
anticipating that companies would stop buying big ticket items like computers.
"I think the main issue for Q3 is, in general, how much is IBM being
able to withstand global weakness in IT spending? Can it deliver the kind of
revenue that people are expecting?" said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at
Sanford Bernstein.
"The second question is, how big of an impact is weakness in
microelectronics?" Sacconaghi said. He lowered his estimates for
third-quarter, fourth-quarter and 2002 earnings on Wednesday.
Analysts expect IBM to post earnings of 90 cents a share on revenue of $20.76
billion when it reports its third quarter results on Oct. 16, according to
research firm Thomson Financial/First Call. Earnings estimates range from 82
cents a share to 90 cents a share. That would put earnings down 17 per cent from
the second quarter and 35 percent from the year-earlier quarter.
IBM'S recurring revenue softens blow
IBM is one of the few hardware makers that hasn't warned of a shortfall this
quarter. In the past two weeks, competitors, including EMC Corp. and Sun
Microsystems Inc., have warned of weak sales as demand fell after the attacks.
IBM hasn't suffered as much as its rivals because it has a more stable stream
of recurring revenues from its services and software businesses, analysts say.
While hardware, software and microelectronics are expected to be weak, investors
said, service revenue isn't.
"If you do see weakness in the services business that would be a cause
for concern, much more so than if you saw weakness in hardware, or
microelectronics, software," said John Park, an investment officer for
Independence Investment in Boston, a money management subsidiary of John Hancock
Financial Services.
In those three areas, he said, "the market clearly expects to see some
level of shortfall." IBM's shares are unlikely to decline on weak revenues
in those areas he said, but could be affected if the company gives guidance that
doesn't fall within expectations.
Currently, analysts expect earnings per share to increase to $1.35 in the
fourth quarter on revenues of $24.38 billion. For 2002, analysts see earnings of
$5 a share, up from the $4.40 expected in 2001.
Microelectronics recovery may be delayed
Influential Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro, who already cut estimates
for IBM two weeks ago, brought down her estimates for the fourth quarter and for
2002 on Wednesday, citing weak IT spending going forward.
Conigliaro also said that she expects semiconductor sales, which make up the
microelectronics business, will remain under pressure through the first quarter
and probably into the second quarter of 2002. IBM has warned analysts that
microelectronics could be a factor in its ability to meet its financial
objectives this quarter but has said it expects a recovery.
IBM Chief Financial Officer John Joyce said during the second quarter
conference call in July that he expected microelectronics to be down 10 per cent
to 20 per cent in the third quarter from the second quarter as its customers
worked off $250 million in IBM inventories. But Joyce said he expected it to
pick up in the fourth quarter.
IBM makes semiconductors used in communications sector, enterprise servers
and storage and in the embedded area, which would include game systems.
Bernstein's Sacconaghi said he expected the decline in microelectronics
profits in the third quarter to account for 10 cents to 15 cents a share of lost
earnings compared with a year ago.
(C) Reuters Limited 2001.