GPON equipment investment outpaces subs growth in India

CALIFORNIA, USA: Though GPON infrastructure investments currently far outpace GPON subscriber growth, subscribers to premium broadband services via 2.5G GPON technology are expected to rise at a rapid clip, totaling 8.5 million by 2015 in India, the Middle East, Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, finds market research firm Infonetics Research.

"Sales of 2.5 GPON equipment will pick up in Western Europe where major incumbents, led by France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom, are pursuing targeted GPON FTTH rollouts, as well as in Central and Eastern Europe, where major operators in Russia (Beeline, Northwest Telecom, Sibirtelecom, Comstar, and NGTS), are beginning the transition from FTTB to GPON-based FTTH technologies this year," notes Jeff Heynen, directing analyst, broadband access, Infonetics Research.

Revenue from 2.5G GPON equipment is forecast by Infonetics Research to grow at a 16 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2010 to 2015 in Western Europe, and at a 13 per cent CAGR in Central and Eastern Europe

Heynen adds: "But in India and the Middle East, GPON sales are actually expected to decline by 2015 because major operators there (namely BSNL in India and Etisalat in the United Arab Emirates) already took huge OLT and ONT shipments in 2009 and 2010 for large-scale GPON FTTH rollouts. Both operators expect to achieve their 'homes passed' goals this year. Future rollouts will be far more limited in these regions as the focus shifts to subscriber acquisition."

10G GPON and asymmetrical 10G GPON (XG-PON1) will see only minimal trial deployment in late 2011 and early 2012 in Western Europe, and even later in the other regions, adds the research firm.

It also finds that while each of the key regions tracked in the report has its own 2.5 GPON revenue market share leader, only Huawei and Alcatel-Lucent have a strong showing across multiple regions.