Global PC shipments to reach 368 mn in 2010

MUMBAI, INDIA: Worldwide PC shipments are projected to total 367.8 million units in 2010, a 19.2 per cent increase from 308.3 million units shipped in 2009, according to the latest preliminary forecast by research and advisory company Gartner, Inc.

“The PC market revived in the first half of 2010, but the real test of its resilience is yet to come,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “We have reduced our forecast for second-half 2010 PC growth to 15.3 per cent, approximately 2 per cent below our previous forecast, in light of the uncertain economic outlook for the United States and Western Europe.

He said that consumer, if not business PC, demand has slowed relative to expectations in mature markets. “Recent dramatic shifts in the PC supply chain were in no small part a reaction to fears of a sharp slowdown in mature-market demand.”

However, according to him, suppliers' risk-aversion is as much a factor in these shifts as any actual downshift in demand.

“Consumers buoyed the PC market in 2009 as businesses delayed their purchases. The slow pace of economic recovery and austerity measures in Europe have made PC suppliers very cautious in 2010. However, consumer demand is likely to remain strong even if the economic recovery stalls because consumers now view the PC as a relative 'necessity' rather than a 'luxury' and will continue to spend on PCs, even at the expense of other consumer electronic devices,” Atwal said.

Gartner analysts said businesses will find it very difficult to delay PC replacements further. The age of the professional PC installed base is already at an all-time high.

Mini-notebooks' impact on the PC market has peaked and is now waning, according to Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner.

Mini-notebooks' share of mobile PC shipments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2010, falling under 18 per cent. Mini-notebooks' share of the mobile PC market peaked in late 2009, when they accounted for nearly 20 per cent of total mobile PC shipments. Their share is expected to continue falling until it reaches around 10 per cent by late 2014.