Global PC shipments to reach 336.6mn units in 2010

NEW DELHI, INDIA: Gartner's preliminary fourth-quarter forecast outlines that accelerating mobile PC shipments will drive the worldwide PC market to grow again this year. The new forecast predicts worldwide PC shipments will amount to 298.9 million units in 2009, a 2.8 percent increase from 2008. In 2010, PC shipments are projected to reach 336.6 million units, a 12.6 percent increase over 2009.

This forecast is more optimistic than Gartner's September forecast, which anticipated a two percent decline in shipments for 2009. George Shiffler, Research Director, Gartner remarked, "Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year. We are anticipating seasonally modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, but because shipments were so weak in the fourth quarter of 2008, growth will appear quite strong. This could lull vendors and market watchers into thinking the market is recovering faster than it really is."

While PC shipments are now expected to increase in 2009, the market value of PC shipments is still projected to decline. The market value of global PC shipments is now forecast to total $217 billion in 2009, a 10.7 percent decline from 2008. Gartner is now projecting the market value of PC shipments to reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6 percent increase over 2009.

Gartner analysts reiterated their belief that Windows 7 will have a limited impact on holiday PC sales but noted that 2010 PC shipments could be affected. Shiffler stated, "We just don't see consumers buying new PCs solely because of Windows 7."

Gartner's new forecast indicates mobile PC shipments are on pace to reach 162 million units in 2009, a 15.4 percent increase over 2008. In 2010, mobile PC shipments are expected to reach 196.4 million units. Mini-notebook shipments, included in overall mobile PC shipments, are forecast to reach 29 million in 2009 and will grow to 41 million shipments in 2010. Meanwhile, shipments of desk-based PCs are expected to total 136.9 million units in 2009, a nine percent decline from 2008. In 2010, desk-based PC shipments are forecast to reach 140.2 million units.

Gartner's preliminary forecast is subject to revision and will be superseded by its final forecast, which will be released in three weeks.