Global economic recovery will be slow, uneven: UN

UNITED NATIONS: The world economic recovery, while stronger than expected just six months ago, will be slow and uneven and could be set back by conflict in the Middle East or Asia, the United Nations warned on Wednesday.

Helped by strong growth in a resurgent United States, the world's economy will grow about 1.75 percent this year, the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs forecast in its latest survey. It forecast 3.25 percent growth next year. The growth estimate for this year is slightly below the 1.8 percent forecast issued in April, but still above the 1.5 percent prediction made in January.

While the recovery shows the resilience of the world's economy after last year, which saw growth of only 1.3 percent, the lowest in a decade, recovery will not be as fast nor widespread as the downturn, the world body warned. "Whereas the slowdown was rapid and embraced many countries, the recovery is expected to be both slow and less synchronized among economies," the United Nations said.

Developed countries could expect only a "modest" recovery this year, while economies in transition -- mostly Eastern European countries -- would see continued lower growth rates, it said. China and India, only lightly affected by 2001's slowdown, should maintain their growth rates this year and the next, the survey said, but most developing countries would not return to rates of growth they had in the mid-1990s until late next year.

The survey said the economic effects of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States were less than feared, but continuing Middle East violence and tension between India and Pakistan made forecasting uncertain. The U.N.'s projections for this year were in line with the more closely watched forecast from the International Monetary Fund, adjusted for certain currency calculations.

(C) Reuters Ltd.