The Fourth Turning: The Birth of a New World Order and AI as the Emerging Archetype

History is synonymous with cycles of inflections and disruptions. The concept that history moves in cycles rather than straight lines comes from the belief that history and events that become part of history tend to repeat over time in different ways.

The current scheme of events both in the tech and the geo-political landscape foretell the probability of many upcoming ‘Black Swan’ events that will change the very fabric of our lives as we move forward. The term ‘Black Swan’ was popularized by celebrated author Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book -The Black Swan, in which he investigates how rare and unpredictable events have a profound impact on our lives and work.

The aftermath of COVID-19 is one such Black Swan moment. And now, the rise of Generative AI, first seen as pure tech development is transforming into much bigger. The real impact and scale of it, no one is sure about. It has all the trapping of a Black Swan, we are unable to determine how it will manifest in the long run.

Staying on the course of history’s cyclical and unpredictable nature, and the impact of AI, we can lean on an interesting theory called Strauss–Howe Generational Theory, a part of the book called ‘The Fourth Turning’ that describes generational cycles and societal change. The book was authored by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

Let’s apply this to the current AI-driven disruption and try and decode the context of societal cycles, leadership shifts, and technological evolutions.

Before that, What is Fourth Turning?

Looking back in time, we encounter several intriguing theories and observations. One such perspective suggests that roughly every eighty years, the world experiences catastrophic events that alter the course of human history. While many of these ideas lack rigorous scientific or scholarly validation, a particularly notable one resurfaced in recent years: the Strauss–Howe generational theory. Proposed by two U.S. academics, William Strauss and Neil Howe, the theory postulates that historical events align with recurring generational archetypes. Each archetype gives rise to a new era, or "turning," lasting approximately 20-25 years, during which a distinct social, political, and economic climate emerges.

The past examples of Fourth Turning were events like the American Revolution the Great Depression and World War II, the COVID-19  pandemic, and now probably the rise of AI.

How do we Apply This to the Current Context?

A  ‘Fourth Turning’ suggests that history is characterized by a generational cycle of four stages, we can break that into:

• First Turning – A high period marked by a period of stability and growth after a crisis.
• The Second Turning: Called as awakening period is marked by various cultural shifts and challenging norms and institutions.
• Third Turning: This is called the unraveling phase, the beginning of a decline in terms of trust placed in established institutions, and fragmentation starts.
• Fourth Turning: It’s called a crisis, this is a period of disruption, when conventions and systems fall apart and new orders evolve.  

Given the current landscape, we can assume that we are in the Fourth Turning ( a period of crisis as well as opportunities). It's marked by institutional decline, a radical transformation in the geopolitical landscape, instability, and technology disruptions like AI having a huge impact on jobs, ways of working, and overall governance.

Why AI is the Great Disruptor of the Fourth Turning?

Let’s focus on the ‘Hero’ of this disruption among others- the massive rise of AI from the corridors of academia to the main streets. This is a development that is different from the past fourth turnings, which were marked by war, economic upheavals, and political realignments. This time, however, the battlefield is different. Today the ammunition is algorithms, not guns. It’s not between countries but between every human being and technology.

When Tech Imperialism Powers Capitalism

While economic sanctions and trade tariffs have always served as a tool for the higher West to make the poor South comply and fall in line, today’s capitalism has already aligned towards a platform owned by a group of most powerful politicians, policymakers, and business owners, now add to it the layer of most powerful people in technolgy. They will command and will take a front-row seat in defining and shaping the systems.  A key part of that systemic evolution is AI, which is now seen as a tool to unleash a new form of technology dominance. Let’s look at how it's altering the landscape.

• How AI is challenging traditional power structures? AI is bringing down the domination and business monopolies in media, corporations, and even governments across the world.
• Ways of working and need for speed:  Automation is everywhere. It's replacing jobs faster than anyone has anticipated, the new ones that are being created require a completely new mindset and skills. Many white-collar jobs are now on the edge of obsolescence.
• Truth deficit: Post the advent of Generative AI, trust and truth have gone through the ultimate test. Today we live in a world of Deepfakes, and AI-generated content and algorithms, are cleverly manipulated. These are making it very difficult for us to distinguish fact from fiction, real knowledge from machine-generated knowledge, and right information from misinformation. Welcome to the age of synthetic information, where truth and trust are the first casualty.

So, does it signal the rise of a new world order? Yes, most likely

How the AI Revolution Will Define the Post-Fourth-Turning World?

History is often seen as a guide. We get inspiration from the events that uplifted the world and those events that cast a spell of darkness for an extended period. Yet we have always seen that periods of chaos and destruction ultimately led to the creation of a new order that is far more resilient, decentralized, and essentially different from the past.

What’s in Store as we Move Ahead

The rapid rise of a new power hegemony: Going by history, in the past ‘Turning’ events, the epicenter of power transitioned to a new breed of leaders. Sample this, the Industrial Age was built by engineers and factory owners, while the  Digital Age was shaped by software engineers and entrepreneurs. Similarly, the AI Age will be led by people who vest control and govern what we call now ‘intelligent systems’. The interesting thing to note here is, that it is not just politicians alone, joining the band are AI architects, ethicists, data scientists, and regulators.

Adapt or collapse: We know that the previous crisis has essentially ushered in new or reimagined political regimes and structures. Now with AI, it will render traditional governance models obsolete. How? When Governments start using AI, it is a tool for radical reforms in the ways of working and as well as dominance. We will see Governments driven by Data ( which is a double-edged sword, which has its good, bad, and ugly side) create new political frameworks.

Will we see AI-driven governance models replacing bureaucracies? Will democracy itself evolve into a more algorithmic system? The post-Fourth Turning world will demand new political frameworks.

The beginning of the end of the traditional workforce as we know it today: Of all the things, the workforce across the world will see the greatest of change and transformation. We can look at previous examples such as how the Industrial Revolution forced or evolved framers into factory owners and workers.

Similarly, the AI age will force many of them in the workforce to upskill to new realities and carve out a niche. But many are not in the position to easily morph to the new realities and getting that ‘unique human role’ amid AI and Automation is no easy task. On the positive side, it will elevate the individuals who can align their skills to the ‘perpetual transformation’ and those who cannot will end up as laggards and AI will render them jobless.

Lifelong learning leads to lifelong earning: In the new work-life equation, the concept of retirement will become redundant. As long one's natural cognitive abilities are in the pink, one will be forced to be in the workforce, the new age concepts like Financial Independence, and Retire Early (FIRE) will be challenged and a few elites may get that privilege, but for the masses, it going to be a challenging task to stay in the workforce and continue to earn, well past their retirement age.

The upcoming generation: ‘Born in the AI age’: If there is any empiricism to the Strauss–Howe theory, Gen Z and Gen Alpha will be the ones to rebuild society in AI’s age. For instance the ‘Greatest Generation’ saw the two world wars and made the post-WWII world, similarly, today’s youth will define the outcome of AI - whether disruptions like AI serve humanity—or control it.

Parting Shot: What Comes Next?

Strictly going by the ‘Fourth Turning’ what we learn is, it has been brutal at the same time, a time for redemption. Today AI is nudging humanity to face its deepest fears: the fear of being non-relevant and getting obsolete. It also signals the fear of losing control and grip people have had till now.

Given the variables for success and failure in the AI age, history has always revealed that every upsetting event has only made humanity wiser, stronger, and forever changed.

Right now we have two options in front of us: One, we will have to master AI, or two, AI will master us.

Nevertheless, in the near to long-term future, we need to learn to live with bots and algorithms.