DRAM supply unlikely to rise till 2010 Q4

TAIPEI, TAIWAN: Supply from upstream DRAM makers will not go up considerably till the fourth quarter of 2010 sine the delivery lead times for immersion scanners are being extended, according to D K Tsai, chairman of Powertech Technology (PTI), the provider of memory packaging and testing service.

However, he added, the constraints in supply could prevent some impulsive decisions, which could later result in industry-wide oversupply.

Tsai told a conference of investors that spot prices for 1-Gb DDR3 chips are expected to stabilise, on an average, at US$3 in the short term. This level indicates a healthy supply/demand scenario.

Makers of DRAM chips are accelerating heir sub-50nm migrations with a view to manufacturing DDR3 at a competitive price. 

iSuppli has forecast that the share of DDR3 in the DRAM market will go up by 50.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2010, surpassing the DDR2. DRAMeXchange considers DDR3 as the leading technology for personal-computer memory for the first quarter of 2010.

In his speech, Tsai hinted that the NAND flash sector will be boosted by smartphone, SSD, and tablet PC applications in 2010. Since producers of NAND flash tend to be more cautious about expanding production, prices of NAND chips will be more stable compared to DRAM in 2010, Tsai said.