Bush or Gore?

The American Presidential elections is all set to play a crucial role in

deciding the future course of the high-tech industry. Unlike the past elections,

there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this one. But, uncertainty in

Washington DC is bad for the financial markets. An economic downturn, especially

in the volatile high-tech sector may drag down consumer spending in the coming

holiday season. Any hesitance by consumers to whip out the plastic and spend big

on Christmas will sink many companies like computer hardware and software

vendors, desperate dotcoms and so on.

They in turn will impact the building block industries like semiconductors

and storage devices. Just about every company in the computer and consumer

electronic food chain built heavy this summer in anticipation of strong

Christmas sales.

Less than a week from the American Presidential elections, the temptation to

forecast is just too great. The problem is that even if you could predict who

will get the most votes, it will not mean that candidate will be the next leader

of the free world.

America's presidential elections are much like the game of roulette. If Red

comes up next week, Gore will be president. If the ball falls into a black spot,

Bush will delight us for the next four years with his inability to speak three

words without seriously mangling two of them.

But like roulette. The bet is not exactly 50/50. There are after all the

"0" and "00" slots, which mess up everything every 20 or so

spins of the wheel.

Get ready for what may be the greatest show on earth yet, as chances are

pretty fair that that one of those green spots will come up next Tuesday. If it

does, the choice of president falls to the US Congress. And if that ends in a

tie, Strong Trumond, Republican leader of the Senate, will be president.

For the first time in two centuries, that is the 20th and 21st centuries (as

young as the latter may be), the decision who will be America's President may

not rest in the hands of the 100 or so million people who will bother to show up

on election day. The decision will rest in the hands of 538 ordinary folks who

make up the American Electoral College.

The Electoral College votes are divided among the states based on their

percentage of the overall population. The greater the percentage, the more

electoral votes a state gets. California is the biggest state and gets a

whopping 54 electoral votes.

The winner in each state gets all the electoral votes of that state. There

are 538 electoral votes. It takes 270 votes to become president.

Some time each January following a presidential election, the Electoral

College gets together and elects a president. Usually, it is a formality. Most

elections are fairly lopsided as most presidents have been able to win by some

margin in a vast majority of states. The last really close election in electoral

votes was Nixon Vs Kennedy.

There has been only one election in which there was an electoral deadlock of

269-269. It was then up to the Congress, which chose Thomas Jefferson over his

opponent.

The polls show that neither Gore or Bush is currently assured the necessary

270 electoral votes. The decision is literally up to a handful of smaller states

that are too close to call. And there are many scenarios in which there could be

a 269-269 result.

Barring last minute blunders by either candidates, the election will get down

to the wire and may well be worth staying up for, even though the candidates

themselves are likely to put us to sleep for the next four years.