Arun Netravali presents seven predictions for the e-network

NEW DELHI: Arun Netravali, President, Bell Labs, in a conference organized by Nasscom, presented seven predictions for e-networks in the new millennium. The first important thing that will happen, according to him, is that a mega-network will enfold the earth in a communications 'skin' with ubiquitous connectivity and enormous bandwidth. Second, by 2010, there will be many inter-connected devices that the volume of infra-chatter among communicating machines will surpass communications among humans. Third, bandwidth will be too cheap to meter.

Fourth, consumers and businesses will have a vast variety of individualized, custom services--written by countless programmers on an open mega-network. Fifth, today's Internet will dramatically transform to a broadband 'Hi-IQNet' with natural interfaces, with active websites and with software agents to extract desired information via text, voice, images and video.

Sixth, the mega-network or HI-IQNet will act as a high level mediator to bring together humans and information of all kinds. And seventh, a new age of virtuality will transform the way people will live and conduct their business.

Talking about the market scenario, he noted that even though it took a century to install the world's first 700 million phone lines, now the same number would be installed within the next 15-20 years. He further added that 58 million Km of fiber was deployed in 1999--enough to circle the globe 1,450 times! This revolution in information technology, he said, is what is creating an unprecedented global change.

The growth of the Internet is also driving infrastructural growth. Quoting some figures to substitute this statement of his, he said, "12 million e-mail messages will be sent in the next minutes, in addition to 0.5 million voice mail messages; 37 million people will log on to the Net today; in the next 100 days, Internet traffic will double; more than 25 million new websites will come online in the next year; and more than 600 million devices will be connected to cellular networks by 2002. " He further added that the pace of network mergers and acquisitions in telecom and networking is exploding and venture capitalists are increasing their participation in the telecom and networking segment.

In this scenario, Netravali said companies who are too slow to embrace the new technologies might be displaced, damaged or destroyed. On the other hand, those companies that seize the new technologies to reduce costs, improve customer satisfaction, increase speed of operations, transform business processes and address new markets will thrive. The attributes of the survivors, according to him, would be speed; customer focus; re-invent; cost/simplicity; and a global perspective.