Android to seize 45pc smartphone market in 5yrs

NEW YORK, USA: Android will capture 45 per cent of the smartphone market by 2016, predicts ABI Research. Of the total 302 million smartphones shipped last year, about 69 million smartphones use Android operating system, adds the market research firm.

“Android, Bada and BlackBerry have a great opportunity to fill the vacuum being left by the disappearance of the Symbian OS within the next two years,” notes senior analyst Michael Morgan.

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Apple’s iOS, which held 15 per cent of the market in 2010, should continue moderate but steady growth over the mid-term, backed by new product introductions. ABI Research forecasts 19 per cent market share for iOS in 2016.

RIM, which held 16 per cent of the market in 2010, is expected to lose just a little ground: 14 per cent is the forecast for 2016. “RIM’s slight loss of share doesn’t mean falling shipments,” says Vice President Kevin Burden. “RIM has found its niche, but the consumer market will grow faster than its portion of it.”

Of the newer entrants in the smartphone OS arena, Windows Phone 7 and Samsung’s Bada are both aimed at low- to mid-range handsets. “With four million units shipped in 2010 (amounting to a 1.5 per cent market share), Bada has taken off very well, very fast,” Morgan adds. “Bada may reach 10 per cent market share by 2016. Windows Phone 7, on the other hand, which shipped in two million handsets in Q4 2010, will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than seven per cent of the market by 2016.”

Burden concludes, “The overall smartphone market growth for 2010 is not really so surprising: what is more significant is the 19 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) contained in our forecasts through 2016.”