Analog, memory, logic dealers see good demand

SAN JOSE, USA: During the beginning of the year, analog, memory, logic and other IC dealers began to notice enormous demand, prompting shortages for selected parts and extensive lead times.

Now some say, LEDs are in short supply. Though there are still others who believe that LED supply and demand are in equilibrium.

Daniel Amir, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets says, ''Component lead times continue to be tight. Many component vendors have revealed that lead times stay reasonably tight at 8-12 weeks''.

He further added, “The supply situation is tense due to growing demand from backlighting for TVs and general lighting markets”.

In contrast, ASPs are dipping for LEDs. ''We have learned that prices have declined by almost 30 percent year-on-year on a lumen basis and should go on decreasing as more supply comes to the marketplace and performance improves,'' he said.

Consequently, there is a surplus of LED projects. Several vendors at the event projected that 200-plus large commercial projects were out for bids in 2010, up from 50 or so during the last year,'' he said.

Others have a different point of view. ''In terms of the on the whole LED marketplace environment, supply demand is approximately in equilibrium with lead-times in the 3-10 weeks range and with pricing declining at 5-10 percent quarterly '' said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc. ''Power LED pricing can be reducing to 20 percent plus levels recently (quarterly), however, steady with historical norms at the high-end of the LED component section in order encourage demand.''

Regardless, the fast-growing marketplace for high-brightness LEDs in LCD TVs will be constrained by a scarcity of key semiconductor materials during the second half of the year 2010, as per the Strategy Analytics.

The quick incursion of LED backlighting modules in LCD TVs has by now seen its demand rise, for capital equipment, principally for the metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) reactors.

Demand for TMG by now exceeds the existing supply; thus manufacturers require absorbing a 20 percent price rise in the near term. A deficiency of sapphire wafers - upon which the majority of blue and white LEDs are produced - is also expected in the second half of 2010, as per the firm.