About 90pc fab investments for 300mm capacity

SAN JOSE, USA & BANGALORE, INDIA: SEMI (Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International) recently released its World Fab Forecast report, wherein, a projected decline in world semiconductor fab equipment spending of 20 percent is likely for 2008, but a rebound of over 20 percent in spending is expected in 2009, driven by over 70 fab projects.

The August 2008 edition of the report lists 53 fab equipping projects and up to 21 construction projects for fabs in 2009.

It is sincerely hoped that at least one of the fabs likely from Southeast Asia is from India.

With the help of Scott Smith Senior Manager, Public Relations, SEMI, I was able to get into a discussion with Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, Senior Manager of Fab Information and Analysis at SEMI, in an attempt to find out more about the decline in global fab spends, these new fabs, and how these fabs can lead a turnaround in the global semiconductor industry.

Excerpts from an interview with SEMI's Dieseldorff:

CIOL: What are the chief reasons for the decline in fab spends during 2008?

Christian Gregor Dieseldorff: Given the weaker economic conditions globally, coupled with higher energy and commodity prices and the financial crisis, the overall outlook for semiconductor growth in 2008 is for low-single digit growth in both revenues and units. As such, device makers have responded by cutting back their capital spending and pushing out fab projects or putting them on hold.

CIOL: Off these 70 new fabs coming up in 2009, what's the geographic breakup?

CGD: These are not 70 new fabs coming up in 2009. Rather, the numbers reflect 300mm fabs only, and is a mix of on-going and new projects for fabs equipping and fab construction projects in 2009.

For equipping 300mm fabs, we expect about: Americas 8, China 5, Europe and Mideast 4, Japan 7, South Korea 11, SE Asia 3 and Taiwan 15.

For 300mm fab construction projects, we expect about: Americas 3, China 2, Europe and Mideast 1, Japan 2, South Korea 3, SE Asia 2 and Taiwan 8.

CIOL: What are the salient features of some of these new fabs likely to come up next year (eg., new tech nodes)?

CGD: About 90 percent of the investments are for 300mm capacity, and the amount of spending for advanced nodes, such as 65nm, is increasing.

Also, device makers are building larger fabs, which are termed "mega fabs," so, to potentially realize a greater return based on scales of economy.

CIOL: How will these new fabs contribute to a better performance from the global semicon industry?

CGD: Over the past several years, demand for semiconductor devices have been quite strong, so the industry has had to bring on capacity to support this need, both in terms of needed capacity and technology. Even with the slower market growth in 2008, recent industry data show healthy levels of fab capacity utilization, especially for the advanced technology generations and for 300mm manufacturing.

The expectation is that demand for semiconductors will strengthen once global economic conditions improve. So, the capacity addition that is coming online this year and the fab projects that are equipping and beginning construction in 2009 are necessary to meet the future demand.

CIOL: How will these affect the overall memory market (eg., 42pc increase in share for memory)?

CGD: The memory market has been battered by declining average selling prices and a condition termed by some as "profitless prosperity." Looking at demand forecasts specific to memory, tremendous growth is anticipated.

However, the manufacturers in this device segment are battling it out for market share, and the general expectation is that consolidation will continue.

Also, joint-ventures and partnerships are becoming increasingly critical in the memory sector as manufacturers seek to leverage their existing resources to meet future technology and capacity requirements.

CIOL: Why are Taiwan and Korea forecasted as likely to exceed Japan in fab spend? What's the scenario in Europe and the US going to be like?

CGD: In Korea, Samsung is the key spender and as a company they will continue to invest so to have a dominant share in the memory sector.

In 2009, our expectation is for the DRAM manufacturers in Taiwan to boost spending after cutting back this year. We expect seven new 300 mm fab lines in Taiwan to come into production over the next two years.

Spending in Japan has been more measured and is likely to remain so. Toshiba (and its joint-venture partner, Sandisk) are the big spenders in Japan, when it comes to new fab capacity. Other Japanese semiconductor manufacturers are more cautious and are focused more on technology spending.