TFPV/OPV materials to hit $2.4bn by 2011

GLEN ALLEN, USA: NanoMarkets, a leading industry analyst firm based here, has released an updated analysis of the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) and organic photovoltaics (OPV) materials markets. Although projected growth for the thin-film PV is likely to suffer as the result of the economic downturn, it still represents an attractive market for materials firms.

The firm's new analysis and forecast projects revenues of $2.4 billion in 2011 that will grow to just under $7.5 billion in 2015.

Key insights:

NanoMarkets believes that the current financial crisis will set back improvements for some of the more advanced materials being developed for PV. Efforts in the CIGS space, such as the development of better formulations of selenium, will be delayed. So will improvements in OPV materials that could lead OPV beyond its current low conversion efficiencies.

In addition, market conditions will set back research into materials for so-called third-generation PV such as cadmium selenide, cadmium sulfide, and cadmium telluride nanocrystals. Such delays will slow the progress that TFPV has been making at the expense of traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaics.

NanoMarkets also projects that amorphous silicon (a-Si) materials will continue to dominate the TFPV/OPV sector over the next few years and will account for well over half of the revenues from materials sold into that sector. Sales of silane gas and other materials for a-Si are expected to account for $1.1 billion in revenues in 2011.

However, although the news for developers of new TFPV materials is not good in the short term, NanoMarkets still expects these materials to experience significant new demand in a couple of years, which is when NanoMarkets believes that conditions will lead to quantum leaps in the price of traditional energy sources. Therefore, NanoMarkets believes that firms who can afford to keep their advanced PV materials programs will garner a long-term advantage.