LONDON, INDIA: LTE to dominate 4G migration as the window closes on mobile WiMAX.

Ovum's latest Mobile forecasts to 2014 predict slower revenue growth for operators in the short term as the recession impacts.

However, connections continue to grow. The result will be downward pressure on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), leading to an increasing need for network efficiency. In mature markets, this will drive the uptake of LTE over WiMAX.

By 2014, LTE will have 109 million connections worldwide. In comparison, mobile WiMAX will have almost 55 million connections. This is in stark contrast to 2013, when parity between the two technologies is expected. The level of operator support and the rapidly burgeoning ecosystem will ensure that mobile WiMAX becomes increasingly marginalised.

“Although data services are now here to stay, operators will generally only succeed in generating income from web access, and here competition will ensure that prices erode rapidly, just as traffic increases. Therefore, the aforementioned need for improved network efficiency partly points towards the need for next-generation access networks.”

However, connections growth for LTE and mobile WiMAX should be put into context.

Steven Hartley, senior analyst at Ovum and author of this study, says: “Both technologies combined will account for just 2.6 percent of global connections by 2014. In comparison, HSPA will contribute 11 times that number. Therefore, we believe that the migration to 4G will be neither easy nor overnight. Ovum forthcoming series of reports focusing on the LTE business case, have found that the availability of spectrum and devices, as well as existing infrastructure requirements and market competition, will have a major bearing on the timelines for LTE deployments.

Ovum previously predicted that global mobile services revenues would breach $1 trillion in 2010. Due to macro-economic conditions Ovum now expects this barrier to be broken in 2011. The greatest impact of recessionary forces is seen in the short term. Ovum has revised its revenue forecasts for 2009 down by 9 percent compared to its previously published figures, yet by 2013 the difference is just 1.7 percent lower.
 
“However, the recessionary impact will be relatively muted compared to other industries, and mobile is expected to recover strongly from 2011. By 2014 Ovum expects total operator service revenues to reach $1,114 billion”, adds Hartley.

Voice will continue to be the largest revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 69% of revenues on a global basis and for no less than 60 percent in any region in 2014. As a result, voice will continue to be mobile’s ‘killer app’. Operators must not ignore this fact in the race for data revenues.