LED phosphor shipments to reach 800 metric tons by 2019

GLEN ALLEN: As LEDs continue to rapidly penetrate the general illumination sector, LED phosphors suppliers will experience strong volume growth with phosphor shipments growing to 798 metric tons in 2019 from about 523 metric tons in 2014.

This is according to a new report titled, "LED Phosphors Markets-2014," from NanoMarkets, an industry analysis firm based here. The report says that despite this growth, Chinese competition and the fall in rare earth prices are hitting phosphor prices hard. As a result, the phosphor market will reach just $442 million ($US) in revenue in 2019 compared with $353 million in 2014.

About the report:

This new report from NanoMarkets identifies and quantifies the opportunities in the LED phosphor space. The report contains a granular eight-year forecast of LED phosphor usage in value and volume (metric ton) terms with coverage of all the leading LED applications. These applications include display backlighting, indoor lighting, outdoor lighting, automotive lighting, and specialty lighting.

For each of these applications, the forecasts are broken out by the type of phosphor used and the type of deposition process used. Phosphors covered in this report comprise: garnets, nitrides, aluminates and silicates. Deposition processes considered include both conventional deposition and remote/filter technology.

The report also discusses the product market strategies of the leading suppliers of phosphors and the phosphor strategies of leading LED companies. Companies discussed in this report include: ATMI, Beijing Yuji, Cree, Denka, Epistar, Dow Electronic Materials, eTiger, GE, Intematix, Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings, Nichia, Optiled, Osram, Samsung, Seoul Semiconductor, Sony, Toyoda Gosei and TSMS Solid State Lighting

From the report:

Almost the entire phosphor value chain is now located in China including raw materials supply, LED manufacture and a major share of the end-user market. Chinese phosphor suppliers have become notorious as low-cost suppliers and this has helped fuel a worldwide phosphor price war.

While NanoMarkets believes these trends will continue to hurt margins in the LED phosphor space, there remain significant opportunities for phosphor makers. Although only a $51 million business today, the general illumination market will consume $171 million in phosphors in 2019 and around $250 million in 2021.

This will make it the largest segment of the LED phosphors market; bigger than backlighting market which currently dominates LED phosphor sales. One reason for this market expansion is that LEDs are now dropping to a point where they can actively compete with CFLs for the general illumination dollar. Some countries may miss the CFL phase of the evolution of solid-state lighting altogether and move straight from incandescent bulbs to LEDs.

Nitride and oxynitride phosphors are also expected to grow fast, almost quadrupling in volume shipments from 2014 to reach 179 metric tons in 2019, with 313 metric tons shipped in 2021. Nitride phosphors will enjoy this strong growth because they offer the market improved durability, brightness and a good color rendering index (CRI). These are attractive features in the general illumination market in which LEDs still perform poorly in comparison to the traditional incandescent bulb.