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Internet will be four times as large in four years

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CIOL Bureau
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BANGALORE, INDIA: Annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes — (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes). The projected increase of global IP traffic between 2015 and 2016 alone is more than 330 exabytes, which is almost equal to the the total amount of global IP traffic generated in 2011 (369 exabytes) by 2016.

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This is as per Cisco's Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016).

This significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by a number of factors, including:

1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, the forecast projects there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections?almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth, ? compared with 10.3 billion in 2011.

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o   India will have two billion networked devices by 2016- double from devices in 2011 which stood at 1 billion. 

o   The APAC region alone will have almost 46 per cent of the global network connections, i.e. 8.7 billion network connections.

2. More Internet users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet users ? about 45 per cent of the world's projected population according to United Nations estimates.

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o   India internet traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 64 per cent between 2011 to 2016.

o   In Asia Pacific, there will be 1.7 billion total Internet users in 2016, up from 935 million in 2011.

3. Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.

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o   In India average fixed broadband speed is expected to grow 4.2 fold, during this period, from 1.5Mbps to 6Mbps.

4. More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes?the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) ?would travel the Internet every second.

o   In India Internet video will be 70 per cent of all internet traffic in 2016, up from 30 per cent in 2011.

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5. Wi-Fi growth:  By 2016, over half of the world’s Internet traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.

Global IP Traffic and Device Highlights:

Total Global IP Traffic in "Bytes"

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· Global IP traffic is expected to reach 1.3 zettabyes per year or 110 exabytes per month by 2016, nearly a fourfold increase from approximately 31 exabytes per month in 2011.

· Average global IP traffic in 2016 is expected to reach 150 petabytes per hour, the equivalent of 278 million people streaming an HD movie (at an average streaming speed of 1.2 Mbps) simultaneously.

Regional IP Traffic Trends

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· For fastest-growing IP traffic at the country level, India is expected to have the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 62 per cent CAGR from 2011 to 2016. In a second-place tie, Brazil and South Africa both have 53 per cent CAGRs over the forecast period.

· By 2016, the Asia Pacific region is forecast to generate the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North America (27.5 exabytes per month), which generated the second most amount of traffic.

· The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2011—2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58 per cent compound annual growth rate, for 10-fold growth), and Latin America (49 per cent CAGR, sevenfold growth).

· By 2016, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).

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Major Growth Driver: Consumer Video

· Globally, there are expected to be 1.5 billion Internet video users by 2016, up from 792 million Internet video users in 2011.

In India consumer Internet video traffic will grow 32-fold from 2011 to 2016 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)of 100 per cent.

Global Device Growth

· By 2016, the Index forecasts there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections?almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth.

· In 2011, PCs generated 94 per cent of consumer Internet traffic. This contribution is expected to fall to 81 per cent by

2016?demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets, smartphones, etc. are having on how consumers and businesses access and use the Internet.

· By 2016, TVs are expected to account for over six per cent of global consumer Internet traffic (up from four per cent in 2011), and 18 per cent of Internet video traffic (up from seven per cent in 2011) ?demonstrating the impact of Web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers.

India Device Growth

· In 2011, PC was expected to account for 71 per cent of the consumer internet traffic. This contribution will fall to 44 per cent in 2016?demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets, smartphones, etc. are having on how consumers and businesses access as well as use the Internet.

· By 2016, TVs will account for over six per cent of consumer Internet traffic (up from two per cent in 2011), and Internet- Video to-TV traffic will grow 56-fold from 2011 to 2016.

IPv6 Capable Devices and Connections

· Globally, the index suggests there will be eight billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011; and

· Globally, 40 per cent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10 per cent in 2011.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

· Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016.

Mobile Broadband

· In India, mobile Internet data traffic will grow 58-fold between 2011 to 2016, at a CAGR of 126 per cent.

· Global mobile Internet data traffic is forecast to increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).

Global File Sharing

· By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic is projected to account for 54 per cent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 77 per cent in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of peer-to-peer traffic is expected to increase from a rate of 4.6 exabytes per month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.

Global Business IP Traffic

· In India, Business IP traffic will reach 161Petabytes per month in 2016, equivalent to 40 million DVDs per month or 55084 DVDs per hour. 

· Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42 per cent from 2011 to 2016.

Global Addressable Market and Service Adoption Highlights

Residential

· Globally, there were 1.7 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access in 2011; the index forecasts there will be 2.3 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access by 2016.

· In India, there will be 212 million fixed internet users in 2016 (excluding mobile only), up from 85 million in 2011. TVs will

account for six per cent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2016.

· Globally, digital TV is expected to be the fastest-growing digital television service, going from 694 million subscribers in 2011 to 1.3 billion subscribers in 2016.

· Globally, voice over IP (VoIP) is projected to be the fastest-growing residential Internet service, going from 560 million users in 2011to 928 million users in 2016.

· Globally, Online Music is expected to be the most highly penetrated residential Internet service ?in 2011 there were 1.1 billion users (63 per cent of residential Internet users); in 2016 there are forecast to be 1.8 billion users (79 per cent of residential Internet users).

Consumer Mobile

· Globally, mobile consumers are forecast to grow from 3.7 billion in 2011 to 4.5 billion by 2016.

· In India, video will be 40 per cent of mobile data traffic by 2016, up from 15 per cent by the end of 2011.

· Globally, mobile video is projected to be the fastest-growing consumer mobile service, going from 271 million users in 2011 to 1.6 billion users in 2016.

· Globally, the Index suggests consumer SMS will be the most highly penetrated consumer mobile service?in 2011, there were 2.8 billion users (74 per cent of consumer mobile users), increasing to 4.1 billion users (90 per cent of consumer mobile users) by 2016.

Business

· Globally, business Internet users are projected to grow from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion by 2016.

· In India, business mobile data traffic will grow 49-fold from 2011 to2016 at a CAGR of 117 per cent.

· Globally, desktop videoconferencing is projected to be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to 218.9 million users in 2016.

· In India, mobile data traffic in 2016 will be equivalent to 21x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005.

· Globally, business mobile location-based services (LBS) are forecast to be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27 million users in 2011, increasing to 158 million users by 2016.

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