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Internet in for a brownout by 2010!

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CIOL Bureau
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WASHINGTON,D.C./NEW YORK: A study conducted by Nemertes Research has indicated that consumer and corporate Internet usage could outstrip network capacity both in North America and worldwide by 2010.

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The findings showed that by 2010, the Internet’s capacity will not likely accommodate user demand resulting in increasing Internet brownouts or interruptions. Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years, says the report.

A financial investment of between $42-55 billion, primarily on broadband access capacity, is needed in the US to tackle the demand and capacity difference. This is roughly 60-70 per cent above and beyond the $72 billion service providers are planning to invest.

Global investment requirement is estimated at $137 billion.

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“It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance.

The study - The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web - is the first-ever to assess internet infrastructure.

The impact of inadequate infrastructure will slow down the pace of innovation, the report says.

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“The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise -- not from a lack of user demand, but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies from emerging.”

Citing an example the study said it may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube.

“We need to take steps now to ensure continued improvement of the broadband infrastructure in North America meets the projected demand. To encourage the necessary investment to ensure a positive user experience, it is important for the right tax, commercial and policy environment to be in place. The internet is a critical global resource and our hope is that this study helps us understand what can and should be done today to ensure its integrity and usability for generations to come,” said Bruce Mehlman, co-chair of the IIA.

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