BANGALORE: The market research and consulting firm International Data
Corporation (IDC) has predicted an economic loss of about $400m to India on
account of the Y2K bug striking tonight.
These findings are based on a three-year 'Magellan Project' undertaken by IDC
world-wide to keep track of activities related to the Y2K preparedness and its
effect on various countries worldwide. IDC has said that the total loss on
account of Y2K is estimated to be around $22.8bn worldwide, that is about 0.2
per cent of the world economy.
According to IDC India, the power, banking and transport sectors would be the
most affected by the millennium bug, which will test its strength tonight. The
IDC officials say, Indian companies have spent more than $100m to prepare for
the Y2K bug in the year ’99 alone which has improved its overall rating on Y2K
preparedness, compared to other countries. IDC will also be monitoring all
countries as each country enters the new millennium at different times with the
first being New Zealand.
The market research company has categorized countries on a Beach Oleson pain
index, used as baseline of probability of problems, that determines the Y2K
preparedness of countries and then goes to predict the severity of the loss of
revenue on account of the Y2K bug. IDC has chosen 15 countries in Asia (includes
14 countries and one rest of the region category), 10 countries in Eastern
Europe, six in Middle East, 16 in Western Europe, two in North America and seven
in Latin America for its study.
According to the analysis, India falls under the Pain index of four, along
with Norway, Poland, Malaysia, Philippines and Ireland, which represents 'Minor
bruises'. Countries like Russia and Korea have been placed in the pain index of
9-10 indicating 'casts and crutches' where the impact is supposed to be
'catastrophic'; Taiwan and Vietnam have scored seven indicating that 'pills
required' by these economies to tackle the millennium bug; countries like Egypt,
Israel, Turkey, Mexico, Croatia, Israel, Hungary and Chile have scored over
India with a rating of three, indicating 'twinges'.