IDC cuts 2002 PC sales outlook for US

SAN FRANCISCO: Technology market research firm IDC on Monday slashed its forecast for personal computer sales this year to a 1.1 percent rise, saying the key year-end holiday sales period would prove disappointing. International Data Corp. projected sales for 2002 of 135.5 million personal computers, compared with 134.1 million in 2001, and predicted an 8.4 percent rise in 2003.

The PC market, used to double-digit growth, last year shrank for the first time since 1985. In June IDC had expected 4.7 percent growth this year, although early this year it expected only a 3.2 percent rise. A second-quarter rise in U.S. consumer spending raised hopes that then faded.

As the economic slowdown dragged on, businesses and consumers in mature economies generally decided they did not need to replace old PCs, said Loren Loverde, head of the technology company's PC tracker survey. PC industry executives have also said the back-to-school buying season was slow.

Shipments in Western Europe and Japan would shrink and U.S. growth would be 0.5 percent this year, meaning the real improvement was from emerging economies, Loverde said. Desktop PC sales would fall 1.6 percent, while portable sales globally would rise 10.5 percent and servers using chips from Intel Corp. and its competitors would rise 5.2 percent, he forecast.

He doubted that consumers would turn out for the holidays, either, predicting flattish sales compared with a year ago. "It is not going to be much exciting in the way of a holiday season," he said.

© Reuters