Flat panel shipment growth may slow in long term

AUSTIN, USA: DisplaySearch has indicated that flat panel shipment may grow slowly over the long term as the market reaches maturity its latest Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report.

“Concerns over contracting consumer demand over the near term may grab headlines today, but slower growth may be a long-term trend in the flat panel market,” noted David Barnes, DisplaySearch Vice President of Strategic Analysis. “From 2001 through 2008, flat panel display shipments grew at a compound annual rate of 10 percent. From 2008 to 2015, the compound annual growth forecast is 4 percent due to the market maturity, as flat panel displays have captured most of the market previously served by cathode-ray tubes (CRT). For example, DisplaySearch’s research also indicates that more than 80 percent of all TV sets will use flat panels by 2011.”

As shown in Table 1, older technologies such as vacuum fluorescent and cathode-ray tube displays have experienced decreasing demand as newer technologies became cost competitive. Total display shipments (including all display technologies) grew at a slower compound annual rate of 8 percent from 2001 through 2008.

DisplaySearch expects organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display and electrophoretic display (EPD) shipments to grow at compound annual rates of 20 percent and 15 percent, respectively, over the next seven years. Demand for high-temperature poly-silicon (HTPS) LCDs, used in digital cameras and projectors, may also grow at a double-digit rate. The primary active-matrix (AMLCD) technology based on TFT glass backplanes is forecast to see 8 percent compound annual growth. While this would be slower than the 48 percent compound annual growth estimated for the prior seven years, the AMLCD market may exceed $95 billion in sales this year. Any market that large approaches constraints as it matures.

Table 1: Leading Display Technologies by Shipment Growth, 2008–2015

Despite this, DisplaySearch’s latest findings remained optimistic about unit demand growth from emerging applications. While less than 40,000 OLED units for TV applications may ship this year, DisplaySearch foresees potential for 126 percent compound annual growth in OLED TV panel demand over the next seven years. In addition, expectations for demand growth from mini-note PC applications remains high as consumers around the world are embracing smaller, lower-cost notebooks.

Expectations for shipments to companies specializing in public displays or out-of-home advertising also remain high. The value of in-store advertising and cross-product promotion increases as consumer sentiment declines. The fifth fastest growing application listed in Table 2 is eBooks, which use new electronic paper display technology enabled by companies such as E Ink and SiPix. Several companies are combining electrophoretic displays with organic transistors to introduce plastic displays available this year and next.

Table 2: Five Leading FPD Applications by Shipment Growth, 2008–2015