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Complete IPv6 transition in mid-2013: Ovum

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Deepa
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BANGALORE, INDIA: Today (June 6, 2012,) is the World IPv6 Launch Day, but do not expect much to change on this particular day. Majority of the Internet traffic will continue to be on Ipv4 at least for sometime. The world will have to wait another six years for the new protocol to be more prevalent in use and maybe another year before the IPv4-IPv6 transition comes into effect in reality.

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Mike Sapien, principal analyst, Ovum, in an e-mail interaction with Deepa Damodaran of CIOL, explains why and more. Excerpts:

CIOL: What per cent of the internet community will be IPv6-enabled on June 6, 2012?

Mike Sapien: Since the ‘internet community’ is not a well defined group, I can’t really give an exact number. However, if you consider that the Internet Society, ISPs, global carriers, cable companies, social network and broadband providers of all kinds are the ones driving the migration or better termed ‘dual-support’ of IPv6 (and IPv4), the per cent is extremely high - 90 per cent.

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However, for some of these providers/community, it is still a work in progress. Example: Many global carriers are still making the transition and expanding the service globally, however, I would expect that all of them would be complete by the end of this year and definitely by June 2013.

CIOL: Why is IPv6 traffic still a very small fraction of the community?

Mike Sapien: I would say that a high percentage of the community is using it but a very low percentage of the traffic is IPv6.

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The Internet Society is talking about one per cent of the traffic, but not one per cent of the community. The traffic is so low due to the very low number of devices, applications and users that have turned IPv6 on within their internet applications.

Mobility, mobile access and the proliferation of mobile devices will start to drive the adoption of Ipv6,  including mobile access to many of the services in place today. The providers and community is ready for the most part; the customers and many application providers are just starting to make the transition today.

Many of the smaller customers and consumers will not even know the protocol when they use the internet.

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CIOL: What are the challenges which discourage companies from moving on to IPv6?

Mike Sapien: There are few challenges:

- Customers believe that it is all about having IPv4 addresses and most customers believe they have plenty right now.

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- The down turn in the economy has created more available IPv4 addresses; those companies who have large blocks of addresses continue to have large inventory of addresses.

- Many customers actually believe they are ready and/or have the mistaken impression that they are ready and all it takes is an equipment configuration. Router vendors have advertised for years that they have IPv6 compatible equipment. However, it takes more than just one element in a customer’s network to make the transition and support IPv6.

- Most companies have IPv6 support as one of their top 10 internal IT projects, but it is never in the top five and always gets delayed.

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- For most companies, it is hard to determine and approve the business case and spend money on the project (but there are now some use cases).

- For larger firms, it does take some sizable effort to inventory, plan and phase in the IPv6 support across a large, global network.

CIOL: How much more time will it take for it (IPv6) to be more prevalent?

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Mike Sapien: The move to IPv6 will include many years of dual support (IPv4 and IPv6). And this dual support environment will be around for many years (three to five years at least).

My estimate is that it will take about six years for IPv6 traffic to be the majority of internet traffic.

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CIOL: How many more years will the old protocol (IPv4) be around? How many addresses are left approximately?

Mike Sapien: The number of IPv4 addresses is tough to estimate and I still believe that address space will not be the main drivers to make the move in the end. It will be devices, applications and business communication that will drive the real adoption and that mobility along with government support will get the move to IPv6 to scale deployment.

IPv4 will be around for at least another 10 years and it may be around for another 20 years. There will be many devices and internet applications that just won’t make the move until they are obsolete.

CIOL: What should someone, for whom migrating to IPv6 does not make sense now, do so that they do not lack in service?

Mike Sapien: Everyone should have an assessment done to verify and plan for IPv6. There will be many consumers who will not have to plan for IPv6, but when they get a new internet router or mobile device, they may get painlessly moved to IPv6 with the new device.

Most service providers will support both protocols, so many consumers will not even know that they have made the move. However, the enterprise customer needs to have this assessment done and have a plan so they are ready. I liken it to having a strong, actionable disaster recovery plan.

If you are a small business, this may not be a big deal. However, if you are a large enterprise, you have to have this plan in place to make sure your business and commerce is not disrupted.

CIOL: What is NAT? How does it help in extending the life of IPv4? Is it helpful, or does it lack and thus create more challenges?

Mike Sapien: NAT is network address translation and it is a very good temporary or small scale method to avoid making the transition to IPv6 or another way to support dual-protocol implementation.

In essence, IPv4 addresses are translated into IPv6 addresses and usually works very well at low volumes. It is helpful and can be used in many cases with the early volume and/or low number of users.

As the internet volume grows, devices grow and/or users on NAT grow, it becomes more complex and difficult to manage. There is a point where full dual-stack (IPv4 & IPv6 support method) or native IPv6 support will be more efficient and less complex.

CIOL: Will there be any trouble come Wednesday?

Mike Sapien: No, it will be another industry event that is sponsored and led by the internet community proving they can do what they already have accomplished and that is supporting IPv6 while supporting IPv4.

The only trouble will be the volume of media and press releases confirming that IPv6 can be implemented by many of the internet players, which most of the internet community knows. 

CIOL: Will there be any problem if IPv6 and IPv4 coexist?

 

Mike Sapien: There is no problem with this dual support as much as there is some capital and overhead to having to support both, however, there is no other credible solution for the internet community and internet communications services.

Similar to adding a new area code opening in the US, there is always a need for dual support for a period of time. Unfortunately, due to the number of internet devices and applications using IPv4, this period of time for dual support will be very extended period.

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