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India has overtaken China in terms of monthly mobile additions and there is no sign of slowing down. In terms of tele-density, we are at 17.5 and the achieved NTP '99 targets way ahead of 2010 in 2006. Presently, we have a total subscriber base of around 175 mn telephone lines and plans are to achieve 250 mn lines by December, 2007 and 500 mn lines by December, 2010. Plans are also to provide 50 mn rural connections by December, 2007 and 80 mn by December, 2010.

Having overtaken China in terms of monthly mobile additions, India now plans to take lead in the 3G space, and rollout 3G services even before China plans to roll out TD-SCDMA based 3G services in the country. Though if we look at our neighborhood, in the SAARC region, Sri Lanka has deployed 3G proof-of-concept and is soon planning to deploy commercial 3G network.

India crossed the first step in 3G recently, TRAI released the second version of 3G recommendations called “Allocation and Pricing of Spectrum for 3G and Broadband Wireless Access services”. The first version called “Recommendations on Spectrum Related Issues” was issued on May 13, 2005. The latest policy talks about 3G and BWA (broadband wireless access) in detail and now the ball is in Ministry of Communications who has to take a final call in accepting the TRAI's recommendations or making amendments in the recommendation and then float 3G tenders for operators to participate.    

Commenting on 3G, Dayanidhi Maran, minister of Communications and IT said, “The process for introducing 3G services has already been initiated in India and it is expected that we should be able to launch 3G services by the latter half of 2007.”

The pace and extensiveness of the recent recommendations shows that the government is in a great hurry to implement 3G services. It is expected that with minor modifications, the Department of Telecommunications will accept TRAI recommendations and will push 3G services in FY 2006-07 as it is on top of everybody's agenda-regulator, policy makers, service providers and vendors.

On the operator side, all large operators are in a great hurry to deploy 3G, pressurizing policy makers to finalize 3G guidelines at the earliest. The recent MTNL and BSNL tender talks about 25-30% 3G lines. Even Bharti's recent Ericsson deal also has a flexible component as it takes care of the existing 2G/2.5G infrastructure which can be scaled up for 3G infrastructure in the future, with the deployment of IP soft switches as a common 2G/3G switching core, paving way for an all IP network. Hutchison Essar already has international experience of 3G through its parent company whereas Spice has already announced its mega plans for expanding its coverage (in terms of increased circle) and rolling out 3G services. Similar announcements have been made by Idea Cellular and Aircel for expansion of increased coverage area. On the CDMA front, both Tata Teleservices and Reliance Communications have already done EV-DO trials and are eagerly waiting for 3G spectrum.        

Presently, the operators are focusing on 2G/2.5G services but once they see a dip in ARPU, service providers will have to launch 3G services, says Dipesh Shah, wireless terminal division, Samsung India, Software Operations. And in the Indian context, the killer applications will be video telephony, video streaming, and push e-mail, he added.

3G is not only data focused but also capacity enhancement for voice services bundling of voice with other services makes attractive to pure voice services says Dr Dina Bartels, director, Business Line Management Wireless Access, Siemens AG. India should immediately start with HSDPA as there is no reason why they should not, she added.   

The Recommendations
There has been mixed reaction to TRAI's 3G recommendations. Though the CDMA lobby is happy with the overall 3G recommendations its GSM counterpart feels that it is slanted in favor of CDMA and disadvantageous to GSM. Though both parties are happy and appreciative of the fact that TRAI has come out with a comprehensive recommendation on 3G and BWA in a record time of four months whereas in the earlier 3G recommendations TRAI took almost one year to give its final recommendations.

The formation of National Frequency Management Board (NFMB) has been appreciated by all and has been carried from earlier recommendations. TRAI feels NFMB will help in solving the availability of frequency bands in specified timeframe. It will also help in improving quality of service for 2G and 2.5G service. With all concerned department as its members, the board will help in getting both 2G and 3G spectrum band at the earliest so that mobile infrastructure can achieve their numbers and Indian consumers can experience 3G applications way ahead of schedule.