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From a network point of view, lot of investment has been made over the last few years. More of course needs to be done, but we are a growing economy and the need for more investment will hopefully continue for many decades to come.
But as that network becomes seamless, to be able to put it to some efficient use, backend infrastructure applications and services are going to be needed, says Sandip Gupta, president and CEO, Ensim.
That is a pretty amazing statement to make. He adds, “There is nothing new out there. It is standard hardware and standard operating systems. The applications can provide the new services on this infrastructure.”
Today the communications equipment that was supposed to be hardware at some point for delivering voice is now a software. This software could be replacing the voicemail servers and the conferencing servers. These applications can run over on-premise IP infrastructure or they can even be hosted in the data center of a service provider, or the service provider may have a co-location facility with someone else, and the two may jointly serve the customer over the network.
The Question is Already Answered
“Would you like to use your rotary phone today, at home or at work?” asks Ankur Lal of Infozech Software. Obviously, there is a space for the EPBX, but that is in a community where the scale of communications is lower. Today we have 120 mn phones in India. We also have 5 mn phones added each month. So minutes of usage for most business users have dramatically increased. That is why IVR usage is coming in. IVR did not exist 5 years ago. If you don't have to do IVR, a rotary phone is perfect.
There are applications that our businesses needs today. For our lifestyles to be more productive, we need those applications to happen. Similarly, an IP infrastructure getting embedded into a network today, is almost a must since it is going to overlay applications and voice. That is really the pay off. The payoff in productivity should be far greater than the direct pay off in cost.
Should investment be made in IP infrastructure? The question has been asked in all possible ways and the answer has remained a big 'yes'. There are regulatory hurdles to full utilization of an IP infrastructure, the adoption is still very low, but nobody denies that in the long run the IP investment will pay off. Taking cue from that, and from the efficiencies and economies inherent in the IP technology, a lot of investment has gone into the access infrastructure on IP. But that technology is not really going down to the users.
Won't it Be Expensive?
However, if IP technology was to be fully rolled out, even to the end consumer's level, what would happen to the circuit-switched and the PSTN network? The same as what happened to the typewriters. The service providers may feel the pinch in the short term, but even they will benefit in the long run. Hypothetically, if there were to be an all-IP in the next five years, the 120 mn odd phones users of today would diminish in significance to the 500 mn that would become possible in the next 4-5 years.
As far as costs go, all cost savings would come to naught if the network goes down. Of course, the TDM network has proven itself, but so has the IP network. In the Mumbai deluge, it was the IP network that stayed lit, not the PSTN or the PLMN. So the IP architecture is inherently strong. Put a price to business continuity, and there is the strongest ever justification to do what British Telecom is doing with its 21 CN. Even without such drastic measures, any more investment in the circuit switched infrastructure will only take everybody away from the potential billions that could be reaped from the IP infrastructure.
Technology does not Matter: Applications Do
To be precise, the need for investing in IP technology infrastructure will remain, but what after that? So, it is all very fine to keep on investing in newer protocols, faster processors, and more storage-but all this to what end?
| Besides the investment in hardware and applications development, there will necessarily have to be a lot of investment in the last mile. But unless the last man is reached, the network would remain a limited network |
So, at one end the enterprises of today would have to start investing in applications. Or else, it would be like using a Nokia 9500i for a 'lifetime free' service only. Enterprises should have more sense than that.
However, the market for these applications is not very mature for now. Says Gupta to his fellow developers of communications software, “You should start selling in the markets that are available today. And invest money and resources to get credibility in those markets. Get the first few proof points. And as the market matures, you make small investments, and come back.”
Regulation Strangulation
A lot of this investment may already have come in and many more 'next-generation' communications applications would have found market, if the regulatory regime was to allow fully converged networks. To be fair, converged networks are emerging and the growth and investment into IP equipment (hardware and software) is reflective of that. However, the IP technologies can achieve very little if they are compartmentalized and kept reserved for the enterprises only.
Internationally, the boom in this industry has come in with the entry of the consumers. We are already doing 5 mn customers a month. The economies of IP and the pull of its applications' feature sets could see this rate hasten up.
And the Money Goes to...
There will have to be the investment in IP infrastructure, innovating the services, and delivering the services. This will mean that besides the investment in hardware and applications development, there will necessarily have to be a lot of investment in the last mile. This may take whatever form: more copper, fiber to the home, or wireless technologies. But unless the last man is reached, the network would remain a limited network.
The IP story in India is not likely to go the Europe, US, or the Korea, way. These markets were characterized by an abundance of broadband, when the IP boom began to take over. The IP story in India, says Lal, is more likely to go the way it has in economies such as the Philippines or Thailand. In these countries, like in India, the predominant CPE for accessing the data (or IP) services is a mobile handheld device.
Security
The biggest hurdle to the adoption of IP technologies remains their perceived vulnerability to security threats. Enough development has been done to make IP applications secure, but the successes have been dogged by much publicized and much too frequent successful network attacks. When all is said and done, this is likely to remain as the last hurdle. Also, the vendors are pushing these services to the consumers with assurances of security, whereas these assurances are being constantly torn to pieces with the frequent security breaches.
Security is definitely one of the major areas where investment must be made if IP services are to see a wider adoption among the masses and the enterprises.
Alok Singh
aloksi@cybermedia.co.in
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