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It is 12th Aug 2015. In a kindergarten in Windsor, UK as the kids walk into the class, their attendance is marked. The RFID tag inserted into the left thigh at the time of birth, registers them into the attendance application.
A road commuter in Tokyo, Japan pulls up his car to a blind intersection and the navigation screen flashes 'Caution! oncoming vehicle' and a moment later a red motorbike zooms across. A few yards later, his car picks up a message from the road and the screen flashes, 16 cars waiting ahead at the next traffic signal, slow down to 23mph. Vehicles talk to each other and to the road. Such intelligent transportation systems are deployed across the country and each vehicle released from the manufacturer is fully compatible.
A pharmaceutical salesperson in Durban, South Africa is in a sales call with a doctor. He has forgotten to get the latest drug presentation-he picks his mobile phone, punches a request for the presentation number 216 to be delivered to the plasma screen in Doctor's chamber and a few seconds later, the multimedia presentation is on (and a copy is being downloaded to the salesperson's mobile). 4G mobile networks have 4 bn mobile subscribers and also recognize plasma screens as a mobile terminal streaming content at 100 Mbps.
A software giant based in Gurgaon, India has outsourced work to a company in Bay area. The CTO of the Indian company is holidaying and is on his way to Jaipur at a speed of 160 kmph on NH-8. Suddenly he has an urge to logon to the development machines in the US-with audio commands on his mobile he gets connected to the machines in the US and downloads the release notes written by the US development team on to his car's entertainment system, which converts text into an audio signal-directly on to his cordless headphone so that his son who is watching a cartoon film does not get disturbed.
A grocery shopper in Sydney, Australia walks out of the store, his entire trolley is scanned automatically, stock of the store updated, the smart SIM in the consumer's mobile is charged for the shopping. The shopping receipt is delivered automatically to the mobile.
A teenager in Buenos Aires, Argentina is sitting in her garden with a game console. She is playing with a 9 year old, in Prague, Czech Republic, and an 11 year old who is traveling in a bus near Salzburg, Austria (while his brother is downloading a movie on demand on his mobile phone).
In a glitzy mall in Patna, Bihar, a camera user beams his photos from a Wi-Fi enabled camera to the store's equipment and gets his photos developed. While he is doing this, at his home, the fridge detects that the milk carton's expiry date is approaching and it orders for the milk automatically using machine-2-machine (M2M) communication.
In a house in Beijing, China, the owner comes back with his both hands full with shopping. The door knob detects the owner, opens the house and lets the owner in. The door knob is very smart; it can take the FedEx parcels and sign for the owner. Once inside the house, he opens his laptop and downloads the songs, which are transferred via Wi-Fi enabled fridge and TV to the stereo.
In Oslo, Norway a truck leaves the factory and is on its way to deliver stock to the distributor's warehouse. Due to icy conditions, it skids and hits the central reservation of the dual carriageway blocking the road. Immediately after the accident, the cameras on the highway take the pictures from various angles and transmit the images to the highway patrol and police. On the basis of the number plate, the images are onward transmitted to the factory and to the insurance company. Police and rescue vehicles arrive in a few minutes and the insurance company settles the auto-generated claim in five minutes of the accident.
Flying over Kabul, Afghanistan on a 1000 seater jet, Mr Singh dials his wife in Phagwara, Jalandhar, (India) from his seat 160J and starts a video conversation with her. She is quite keen to see the duty free jewellery-so Mr Singh scans the pages from the duty free catalogue and using the same broadband wireless connection transmits the pages to his wife's mobile phone. Mrs Singh makes a choice and gives a goodbye kiss to Mr Singh.
On the ground in Kanpur, India, a family wants to apply for the passport for their newborn. They make a multimedia call to the regional passport office in Lucknow and the office clerk examines the documents such as birth certificate etc. and takes the picture of the baby during the call. Just after the call is finished-an acknowledgement of the passport application is received on the family PDA.
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The Road Ahead
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Technology
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Primary Use
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Current Deployment
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Future Roadmap
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802.11a Wi-Fi
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In-building wireless networks
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Some offices and homes
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Will likely phase out in favor of 802.11n and WiMax
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802.11b Wi-Fi
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In-building wireless networks
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Worldwide hotspots, offices, and homes
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Already phasing out in favor of 802.11g
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802.11g Wi-Fi
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In-building wireless networks
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Worldwide hotspots, offices, and homes
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Will continue to grow until 802.11n appears, then eventually phase out
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802.11n Wi-Fi
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In-building wireless networks
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Non-standard 'Pre-N' and 'MIMO' devices, used mostly in homes
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Standards-based equipment in 2007
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802.16a WiMax
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Metropolitan, rural broadband, and VOIP telephony
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Pre-standard equipment being used now
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Standards-based equipment in 2006 for fixed site applications by service providers
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802.16e Mobile WiMax
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Mobile broadband data and VoIP telephony
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NA
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Expected deployment in 2008-2010
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GPRS
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Cellular data and messaging
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About 90 countries
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Largely built-out; will transition to 2.5G (EDGE) and 3G (UMTS/HSDPA)
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EDGE
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Cellular data and messaging
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About 30 countries
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Will continue to grow during transition to 3G (UMTS/HSDPA)
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CDMA 2000 1x (1xRTT)
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Cellular voice, data, and messaging
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About 30 countries
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Will continue to grow during transition to 3G (EV-DO)
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1xEV-DO
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Cellular voice, data, and messaging
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About 16 countries
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Expected growth to 120 mn subscribers by 2008 as networks build out
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1xEV-DO Rev A
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Cellular voice, data, and messaging
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NA
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Will be phased in beginning in 2006 by many EV-DO providers
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WCDMA/UMTS
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Cellular voice, data, and messaging
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Available in Europe and a few US cities
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Would give way to HSDPA
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HSDPA
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Cellular voice, data, and messaging
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NA
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Deployments in 2006
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Bluetooth 1.0
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Personal area networking
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Worldwide
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Will continue to be the standard for many devices
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Bluetooth 2.0+EDR
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Personal area networking
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Products starting to ship now
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Devices needing the higher bandwidth will transition to it
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UWB
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Personal area networking and home media networking
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NA
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Products expected in 2007
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UWB (IEEE 802.15.3a) is seen by some consumer electronic manufacturers as an ideal candidate for fast video transfer between peripheral devices, such as digital camcorders, TVs and PCs, and between set-top boxes and TV monitors. UWB promises super-fast transfer rates of up to 480 megabits per second. UWB could become the high-speed successor to Bluetooth, the limited-range personal area network standard.
WiMax is a standards-based wireless technology that provides high-throughput broadband connection speeds of 70 Mbps over long distances. WiMax can be used for a number of applications, including 'last mile' broadband connections, hotspots and cellular backhaul, and high-speed enterprise connectivity for business. But the standard for Mobile WiMax (IEEE 802.16e) isn't set yet, meaning it will be several years before it's complete, after which vendors must start making equipment and operators will need to build the networks.
Mobile-Fi (IEEE 802.20), also known as Mobile Broadband Wireless Access (MBWA), promises broadband Internet access at speeds even faster than Digital Subscriber Line, cable, and potentially WiMax, and at ranges of up to 9.5 miles or more. Unlike WiMax, Mobile-Fi can deliver broadband Internet access to users traveling at speeds up to 155 miles per hour.
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A forward-looking report from IT analyst firm Forrester Research (“Big Idea-The Mobile Mind: The Mobile Worker In 2015,”) imagines that “the mobile worker of 2015 will wear instead of carry computing power,” and that “virtual keyboards and displays will be the norm.” As today's sci-fi becomes tomorrow's reality, Forrester predicts that in our increasingly “ubiquitous wireless world, agent software will handle many administrative duties behind the scenes, and make workers more productive.” Forrester follows “a typical mobile employee through her work day in 2015 to see how naturally the technology has been integrated into her life,” and finds she “lives in a world where instant communications are a way of life”-and as such “she is always connected to a deep reservoir of information on virtually any topic-including the emotional states of those around her.”
How all of the above will be achieved? It is a big question. However, the reality on the ground today is enough to convince us that all of the above is not sci-fi, but an imminent event. We have a plethora of wireless technologies under development, advances in terminal design happening everyday and nanotechnology being pursued with great zeal.
One of the key developments, which will happen, is the Internet of things. We have seen how Internet was born and used–people would sit in front of a computer, which is connected to the global network. Then it evolved to mobile phones and PDAs and people were mobile when connecting to the Internet. Through the new set of developments, now inanimate objects would be connected to the Internet creating the Internet of things. This will happen due to use of RFID, sensors, and advances in nanotechnology where matter can be manipulated at the molecular level. Imagine a world where our phones, cars, shoes, key chains etc. are all connected and know about what we are doing, who we are, and where we are. Gartner analysts predict that by 2015, passive tags would begin to inhabit every non-trivial object, and every thing could be identifiable and located. Active, intelligent wireless networking and sensing devices will cost less than 50 cents. The sensors would run low power CPUs, have wireless and sensor chips, ad hoc networking algorithms, and gain power from the electromagnetic spectrum.
In the US, government agencies working on transportation systems hope to reach a decision by 2008 on the feasibility of developing a nationwide intelligent-transportation system network. If it gets the nod, the first working system could be in place by 2011, feels ITS America, a group devoted to the advancement of intelligent transportation systems. The example depicted earlier on vehicles talking to each other and to the road will be a reality.
As on date, too many overlapping technologies such as Wi-Fi, WiMAX (802.16d), Mobile-Fi, 3G and Ultra-Wideband (UWB), Digital MultiMedia Broadcasting (DMB), Zigbee, and 4G are in the process of being developed, matured and deployed. Currently, 3G has a three-years time to market advantage over mobile WiMAX and will likely reinforce its lead with the emergence of new 3G technologies (HSDPA/HSUPA/Rev.A/ Super 3G, and TD-CDMA).
The future of above technologies is also dependant on how quickly the handset and chip manufacturers create products, which incorporate these technologies. Eventually one gadget could include all-Bluetooth, UWB, Wi-Fi, and WiMax, or a subset. Bits of information received from one network could be processed and retransmitted over another, depending on the application, without the user having to choose one or worry about the bill.
The world in 2015 will be a complex heterogeneous wireless environment with a multitude of technologies. Context and location aware services will dominate and entertainment applications will be the cash cow for the providers. Voice revenues for operators will be dead. Skype like applications using VoIP will survive and will be available on multiple form factors. There will abundance of terminals and services for users who will be quite tech savvy and accustomed to living in the world of multiple and disruptive technologies.
Vish Bajaj, CEO,
ValueFirst Messaging Private Limited.
mail@dqindia.com
Source: Dataquest
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