Can social media campaigns stir radicalization?

With a hope that social media campaigns can prevent people from joining terrorist and extremist groups, Facebook, Twitter, and Alphabet, Google's parent company, had participated in three online experiments last year. The study outcomes were published on Monday by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), which suggests that such efforts could be effective in reaching target audiences and driving conversations among them, though it still remains unclear whether counter-narratives can actually deter radicalization.

Although experts maintain it's difficult to quantify the impact that counter-speech could have on reducing radicalization, various organizations and internet companies have begun exploring the use of counter speech i.e. web content that aims to discredit extremist propaganda.

According to Tanya Silverman, project coordinator at ISD and co-author of the study, "Virality is very much a red herring when it comes to counter-narratives. It's very much about whether you've reached your audience, and that's a measure of success."

The study, funded by Alphabet with additional support from Facebook and Twitter, is based on three video campaigns launched in October 2015 which targeted users in the US, UK, and Pakistan.

1. A US nonprofit called Average Mohammed published five animated videos to explain Islam and discredit jihadism among Somali teens living in the States.

2. Harakat-ut-Taleem, an anonymous group based in Pakistan, created six videos to deter people from joining the Taliban.

3. ExitUSA, a project launched by the US nonprofit Life After Hate, consisted of four videos aimed at discrediting white supremacists and other far-right groups.

Within three weeks, the three organizations saw a boost in their online followings where the 15 videos garnered a total of 378,000 views on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube, and more than 20,000 engagements — a metric that includes likes, shares, comments, and retweets. Average Mohammed's Facebook page likes increased sevenfold, while ExitUSA tripled its number of Twitter followers.

The study also found that the campaigns successfully sparked online debates as well, generating a total of 484 comments across the three platforms. With 66 percent, the comments on Average Mohamed's posts were largely supportive, compared to 32 percent for ExitUSA and 50 percent for Harakat-ut-Taleem.

Though each campaign received negative or opposing comments, the study's authors say it's still a positive sign. "The fact that someone would feel the need to comment, that goes to show that they're thinking about it. They're getting exposed to a worldview that's outside of their echo chamber," says Silverman.

"It's hard to evaluate specific behavioral change," says Joshua Stewart, strategic communications officer at the Quilliam Foundation, a counter-extremism organization, and Europe coordinator of the Families against Terrorism and Extremism (FATE) network. "It's rare when someone steps forward and says 'well, I nearly joined the underground but then watched your video.'"

However, contradicting Stewart's opinion, there was this case of eight people who after watching the videos on Facebook approached the organization and asked for help in leaving white supremacist groups, with each citing the videos as a driver behind their decisions.

Experts say that ISD's findings suggest that with the right support, smaller campaigns can be more effective. Earlier this year, The Wall Street Journal reported that Facebook had begun providing ad credits to users who produce counter-narrative content, including college students and a popular Belgian comedian.

Silverman and her co-author, Christopher Stewart, hope their work will help establish a framework for other organizations to follow. ISD has been working with Google on counter messaging research since 2014 and is working to develop more accurate analytics that would allow them to gain better insights into the impact that such campaigns have over the long-term.