Are there any reliable semicon forecasters remaining?

SARATOGA, USA: It seems that all forecasters have recently changed their IC Revenue forecasts downward for 2008 and 2009. Some, who originally predicted 2008 to grow by approximately 8 percent, have revised their numbers to -2 percent. Are there any forecasters out there who did not have to modify their story to become accurate?

Yes! There is one forecaster, whose policy is to calculate a prediction keeping it unchanged. It advised its clients on December 10, 2007, that IC revenues in 2008 would decline within a range of 0 to -4 percent, contrary to other well known industry forecasters. The firm is Advanced Forecasting, a Silicon Valley quantitative forecasting group that specializes in predicting the timing of peaks and troughs of the Silicon Cycle and the demand for related industries. It seems now, at year-end, that most forecasters have been converging toward AF's forecast via numerous modifications.

"Market players, whether they are at the chip, semiconductor equipment, or semiconductor materials layer, can not change their manufacturing in an instant. A shift from +8 percent growth to -2 percent decline can devastate their bottom line," said Dr. Moshe Handelsman, who developed the quant models while a professor at SCU, adding, "We continue to hold to our original forecast of -2 percent (+/-2 percent) for 2008. On the 10th of December, we will publish our growth forecast for 2009."

Although it is famous for single-handedly predicting the 2001 recession while other forecasters were promising huge growth for 2001 and 2002, it also predicted the ups and downs of the IC cycle starting with the 1987 upswing. The current downturn, from a peak in mid-2007, was announced to its users in mid-2006!

The firm is known for implementing its IC and Semiconductor Equipment and Materials industry forecasts to the product groups / clients of specific companies.

Source: Marketwire