BANGALORE, INDIA: Wondering why this talk on 3G network clogging in India? Especially when 3G hasn't really taken off, and also when 3G spectrum bidding for private players is not yet over.

The third generation of communication technology, also called 3G, that has a theoretical data transmission speeds of up to 3 Mbps, was launched in 2008, when the government-owned telecom providers BSNL and MTNL were allotted spectrum much before private players.

However, the fizz that 3G brought with it fizzled out as swiftly as it frothed. If not a failure, Jadoo of BSNL, who has services in 360 cities and close to one million 3G subscribers, and MTNL, who provides services in Delhi and Mumbai and has close to 2.5 lakh subscribers, didn't really click.

Also Read: WiMAX vs LTE: Can India afford losing spectrum?

However, the whole point of this article isn't to go into the details of why Jadoo failed to click, but to look at what could be the wireless communication scenario of India going forward when 3G and BWA spectrum bids have kicked off.

Now, with nine more players coming into the fray, namely Aircel, Bharti, Etisalat, Idea, Reliance Telecom, S Tel, Tata Teleservices, Vodafone and Videocon Telecom, the current scenario can change in future.

The country is projected to have 200 million 3G subscribers in the next three years and is likely to sell 395 million 3G handsets by 2013, says a recent report from Evalueserve.

Imagine an additional 395 million new handsets over the already existing 500 million subscribers, talking and sending data, especially videos, over the metro. If so, it won't take much long for the present spectrum to feel stifled.

Sudarshan Boosupalli, country head, Ruckus Wireless, says: “With people downloading videos over smartphone, (where one video is equivalent to 50 SMSes), one year from now, we see India's 3G network to get clogged. Today, more and more Internet service providers (ISPs) are setting-up WiFi networks, so as to as provide WiFi, when the 3G network gets clogged.”

However, Ashim Roy, country head, Stoke Networks, has a different take on this. He says, “Although in India it may take some time, probably two or three years, 3G is a guaranteed way to clog network. However, WiFi is not a good mechanism to offload data traffic. There are other offload approaches that are cost effective and non-intrusive.”

Offloading 3G network traffic on to the WiFi network is not a novel phenomenon, though. After all, when AT&Ts 3G network clogged last year, thanks to iPhone traffic, it offloaded a section of its traffic on to WiFi network. Similarly, even Verizon's 3G network went down on several occasions.

It is obvious that every spectrum band will be insufficient going forward. Now, whether or not WiFi or some other technology will be used to offload traffic, time will tell. However, the question today is not whether the network will clog or not, but how to cater to the broadband need of the present generation.

"Spectrum sufficiency is not a question to be argued about today. Given the rate at which voice data is increasing today in India, no amount of spectrum will be sufficient to go forward. However, it does not mean that we shouldn't be serving the last mile broadband connectivity need of people today," notes C S Rao honorary chairman, WiMAX Forum India Chapter.

All said, inarguably it is the onus of the government, service and technology providers to see whether a technology, which comes at a hell lot of cost and time, will be able to sustain the growth going forward.