BANGALORE, INDIA: The much anticipated mobile number portability (MNP) also seems to have fallen in line with the ever-delaying 3G.

Is this a mere coincidence or part of a bigger conspiracy?

"While there is no clear indication that the delay in MNP implementation is a tactic to buy time for delay in 3G auctions, we suspect that the two may be related to some extent," says Anubhuti Belgaonkar, senior analyst, Ovum.

The Indian telecom industry has been the centre of several actions during the past couple of quarters. During this period we saw the entry of about half a dozen international players, who also triggered a never-before-seen-or-heard kind of tariff war, where even seconds and half-a-second seem to matter.

However, on a larger front, issues such as network congestion, call drops still haunt telecom players such as BSNL, MTNL, Airtel, Vodafone, RCom, Tata Communications etc. Thus the fear of losing (dissatisfied) customers, who might opt for another service provider, given a chance, seems to be haunting them.

Thus, "MNP is likely to have a greater impact on these operators such as BSNL, MTNL compared to the new entrants. With the implementation of MNP, it is natural that price wars will intensify further. To that end, the insecurity of telecom service providers appears justified," Anubhuti adds.

Thus the telecos realize the need for additional spectrum more than ever and are waiting for the 3G to take off, so that they can start offering better value-added services and address capacity constraints.

"While we expect the churn to be higher in the initial few quarters of the implementation leading to some swings in existing operator market shares, on an ongoing basis, MNP is likely to have limited effect on market share. Typically, the markets which have seen high MNP activity were small and highly mature mobile markets. The Indian market, on the other hand, is still developing with a large potential market still waiting to be penetrated," Anubhuti notes.

In several countries, churn jumped after MNP. For instance, in Hong Kong, the churn almost doubled after the implementation. Similarly churn in other countries such as Finland and Denmark also increased significantly after MNP. However, it is worth noting that the mobile markets in these countries were small, mature, saturated at that time.

Sanjay Kasturia, director of Syniverse Technologies (India Subcontinent), believes that for mobile operators, MNP can increase the value of 3G licenses by making it easier for operators to win subscribers from competitors.

Both Syniverse and Ovum believe that MNP will fuel improved service offerings by bringing in newer value-added services and improved focus on quality of service. As a result, operators can not only retain current customers but also attract new ones.