NEW DELHI, INDIA: A hot debate has been ongoing about the technology of choice for next generation wireless access, with high (>50Mbps) data upload and download rates, multiservice support and guaranteed Quality of Service (QoS). The entire next generation system will be based on all-IP technology – from access to the core, with circuit-switching available as a fall-back option.

Today, operators are mainly debating between two standard options for wireless access, the data-centric WiMAX (Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access) and voice-centric LTE (Long Term Evolution).

These two standards have a lot of similarities as both are based on orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) and leverage multiple input multiple output (MIMO) antenna technology to work effectively in denser areas.

Both WiMAX and LTE bring a specific focus and hence can be seen as complementary, rather than competing technologies. Their eventual success will be measured by a combination of Technology Performance, Coverage, Supported Devices and Applications.

Why WiMAX

WiMAX, the next generation of WiFi standardized by IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers), is a scalable wireless access technology designed to provide high data rates (upto 75 Mbps) over long distances(~30km). WiMAX is supported on unlicensed spectrum (eg. 2.4 GHz) as well as licensed spectrum (eg. 2.5GHz, 3.5GHz).

Use of unlicensed spectrum is cost-effective (no regulatory requirements, license fees) and reduces time-to-market, though services could be severely impacted due to interference, throughput and distance limitations. On the other hand, use of licensed spectrum combined with proper network planning can provide excellent throughput across long distances, but deployment can get impacted by regulatory and licensing issues, notwithstanding the high upfront costs for spectrum auction.

Since its standardization in late 2005, WiMAX has been deployed by over 400 operators spanning 133 countries, the most recent being Sprint-Clearwire in the US. Current projections by WiMAX Forum predicts a worldwide WiMAX subscriber base of about 130 million by 2012, including a strong base of about 27M subscribers in India. Chip manufacturers like Intel have committed to the availability of embedded WiMAX chips for laptops (even PCs) and mobile handsets by 2009 to ensure maximum leverage of WiMAX rollouts.

Long Term Evolution (LTE)
LTE is the standard approved by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) and GSMA (GSM Association) and provides the evolution path for advancement from today's 3G (UMTS) and 3.5G (HSPA) cellular technologies. Given its voice-centric flavor and well-defined evolution path, LTE has been endorsed by several GSM/UMTS/HSPA (e.g. AT&T) and CDMA   (e.g. Verizon Wireless) operators worldwide. This endorsement ensures that LTE is likely to be the most dominant technology worldwide for mobile voice, with seamless global roaming across different operators. Initial trials are expected by end of 2009 (Verizon Wireless) and rollouts will happen following that.

LTE specifications are supported on multiple base-band spectral frequencies. Most interesting is its ability to leverage the 700MHz spectrum, thereby, enabling LTE to efficiently support voice applications across longer distances and with higher in-building penetration.

India Scenario
In India, 3G services are at least two years behind the rest of the world. Besides, it is still too early to even contemplate a nationwide rollout of either WiMAX or LTE. The 3G licenses (along with WiMAX licenses) are likely to be auctioned and allocated in early 2009. After that, we will start seeing some commercial services of 3G and WiMAX from operators around late 2009. [Note: BSNL and MTNL may have an early start].

The pan-India 3G licenses are expected to cost $500M and combined with the infrastructure upgrade needed to support 3G services (an additional $1B), will require significant investments from the 3G operators. With the current focus on 3G services, it seems unlikely that any of the operators will make any significant investments to upgrade their infrastructure to LTE anytime before 2012.

Today, India has a paltry 5M broadband subscribers (predominantly DSL) and the primary reasons for such low penetration are the high costs of subscriber acquisition that includes wiring the neighborhoods and relatively high cost of PCs (when compared to mobile phones).

Further, the poor infrastructure and lack of proper coordination between different civic bodies leads to very high maintenance costs. The low expected monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) from fixed broadband makes it difficult for the operators to expect returns on their investments for at least five to seven years.

In this scenario, WiMAX can be positioned as an attractive low-cost broadband access technology for operators because it significantly reduces maintenance costs and increases penetration. To promote WiMAX, the DoT (Department of Telecommunications) has set a lower license fee (50% of 3G licenses) and revenue share for operators providing WiMAX services. From a technology standpoint, WiMAX can also address the needs of rural connectivity in India but this cannot happen without the right kind of mandates and incentives from TRAI and DoT.

The ARPU expected from rural connectivity is less commensurate to expected investments to provide that connectivity. Till now, this kind of mandate has not been set by DoT, thereby, weakening the incentives needed for operators to aggressively sponsor rural broadband coverage.

Future of wireless in India
India today is looking forward to the commercial availability of 3G services.  If 3G & WiMAX licenses and spectra are allocated as per the current schedules (by Feb 2009), there is a good chance that WiMAX will get a two- to three-year lead over LTE for pan-India deployment.

However, WiMAX also requires significant infrastructure upgrades on the air interface as well as core network. Supported with strong incentives for rural connectivity, WiMAX can indeed be the wireless broadband technology of choice for end subscribers, both rural and urban.

Critical to the success of WiMAX is a sustained support from the ecosystem; ensuring right pricing models, dual-mode operations with 3G/3.5G technologies, global roaming agreements, device and application availability, all of this packaged attractively to generate interest in consumers, municipalities and enterprise customers.

One additional possibility looms ahead of us. Due to current economic downturn, operators and investors are reluctant to make deep investments towards 3G deployments. If, the 3G licenses are NOT awarded till end of 2009, operators may even consider skipping an entire wireless generation (3G) and leap-frog directly to the next generation technology. Should this happen, LTE will definitely be the MOST dominant technology of choice.