CIOL: What were the reasons for the global 8 percent fall in revenue Q-over-Q? Price pressures from intense competition in major market segments such as DRAMs, DSPs and NAND flash – key components of PCs, cell phones, and other portable consumer products, which are major markets for fabless companies – limited industry growth despite higher unit shipments for these products during Q1’07.
(Merrill Lynch): Unit shipments came in stronger than expected, but ASP was weaker. For the quarter, Q2 billings represented a QoQ decline of 2%, which is worse than the seasonal average growth of 3%. Based on comments from various semiconductor companies, we believe Q2 marks the trough of this cycle. We continue to believe we'll see a strong rebound in Q3. Our full year estimate for 2007 of 5% growth in billings is unchanged.
CIOL: Do you foresee a downturn in the semicon industry due to the above?
2007 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts Company 2006-2007 Forecasted Growth As of Date Revised 2007 Forecast Increased/ Reduced As of Date Advanced Forecasting ~10% Jan 2007 1.8% Reduced June 2007 AG Edwards 10%-15% Jan 2007 0%-10% Reduced Feb 2007 Cowan LRA Model 7.7% Jan 2007 2.2% Reduced Aug 2007 Databeans 12.0% Jan 2007 7.0% Reduced June 2007 Future Horizons 12.0% Jan 2007 6% Reduced July 2007 Gartner Dataquest 9.2% Jan 2007 2.5% Reduced May 2007 IC Insights 7.0% Jan 2007 2.0% Reduced April 2007 In-Stat 10.4% Jan 2007 7.9% Reduced April 2007 International Business Strategies 2.0% Mar 2007 2.0% - Mar 2007 iSuppli 10.6% Jan 2007 6.0% Reduced June 2007 Semico 7.0% Jan 2007 -0.5% Reduced July 2007 SIA 10.0% Jan 2007 1.8% Reduced June 2007 VLSI Research 4.6% Jan 2007 5.0% No Change June 2007 WSTS 8.6% Jan 2007 2.3% Reduced May 2007 Note: TSMC reported a 5-10% semiconductor growth forecast each year for the next 10 years, as a prediction to the growing consumer electronics market.
2007 Semiconductor Analyst Growth Forecasts
Company
2006-2007 Forecasted Growth
As of Date
Revised 2007 Forecast
Increased/ Reduced
Advanced Forecasting
~10%
Jan 2007
1.8%
Reduced
June 2007
AG Edwards
10%-15%
0%-10%
Feb 2007
Cowan LRA Model
7.7%
2.2%
Aug 2007
Databeans
12.0%
7.0%
Future Horizons
6%
July 2007
Gartner Dataquest
9.2%
2.5%
May 2007
IC Insights
2.0%
April 2007
In-Stat
10.4%
7.9%
International Business Strategies
Mar 2007
-
iSuppli
10.6%
6.0%
Semico
-0.5%
SIA
10.0%
VLSI Research
4.6%
5.0%
No Change
WSTS
8.6%
2.3%
Note: TSMC reported a 5-10% semiconductor growth forecast each year for the next 10 years, as a prediction to the growing consumer electronics market.
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