Outlook 2009: Global semicon to drop 7 percent or more!

Global Semiconductor Industry

Outlook 2009: Global semicon to drop 7 percent or more!

At a industry webcast organized by Semiconductor International, US, each one of the experts predicted a gloomy outlook for 2009

Pradeep Chakraborty

Friday, December 19, 2008

USA: Great! That's exactly what all of us didn't need to know! I hope the number given in the headline never ever occurs!!

However, the state that the global semiconductor industry currently finds itself in, the dip could be much worse than this!

At a industry webcast organized this morning by Semiconductor International, US, each one of the experts predicted a gloomy outlook for 2009, starting from a negative 7 percent or more!

According to Aida Jebens, Senior Economist, VLSI Research Inc., her company is pegging electronics to be either flat or negative during 2009. The global semiconductor market could be down 7 percent, and that could further worsen, depending on how the numbers for November and December 2008 come out!

iSuppli, which has yet to announce its forecast publicly was cautious in its guidance. Dale Ford, Senior Vice President, Market Intelligence, said that iSuppli sees the electronic equipment market declining roughly in the 1pc range during 2009. iSuppli had given some interim guidance with regard to semiconductors, with the industry turning down 9.4 percent. In iSuppli's final forecast, it could be much more negative, but not double digit negative. However, the industry could see growth coming down nearly to that range, warned Ford.

Moshe Handelsman, President, Advanced Forecasting Inc., follows the company policy of not divulging the exact numbers, except to clients. However, he noted that there will be decline for ICs in revenues, which could be larger than 2008. The decline in semiconductor equipment could be significantly larger than what other sources believe it will be.

According to Carl Johnson, Executive Director, Research Infrastructure, the electronics equipment sales will be down, close to 10 percent, during 2009. Even IC sales will be down, close to 15 percent range. In capital equipment business, the numbers are not going to be good either, and that, it could probably see at least 30 percent decline in 2009. There are also chances that the industry might even approach the numbers that it reached during the downturns in the mid nineties, cautioned Johnson.

Lara Chamness, Senior Market Analyst, Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI, presented her outlook for semiconductor equipment and materials, adding that 2009 will definitely be a negative year for semiconductor equipment, at somewhere around -22 percent! SEMI is looking at -1 percent decline in 2009 for semiconductor materials.

So, not at all encouraging news, this!

Even solar has not had a good report from the experts, and perhaps, correctly so! For those investing in solar, with the kind of global financial crisis that we find ourselves currently in, people are definitely going to have problems getting credit.

According to VLSI Research's Aida Jebens, there could be a tough time for solar in 2009. It will pick up, but not in the next two years.

Hope, all of these predictions and numbers for 2009 go terribly wrong, somehow!

©CIOL Bureau